__________________________________________
Bakersfield, CA - House Price Index (HPI) - 31 Year Chart
Bakersfield Real Estate Market Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Bakersfield-Delano, CA single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Tuesday, April 17, 2012. Real
estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Bakersfield Real Estate Index: 31 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
10
Bakersfield Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
Home        About Us
1/1980         1/1985        1/1990        1/1995        1/2000         1/2005        1/2010
Commentary  9321
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Bakersfield, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      74%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Bakersfield housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for Bakersfield is 74%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 74% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in Bakersfield is 74% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast
is correct, home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2012 than they were
in the 3rd Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Bakersfield Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      72%

The forecast for the trend in the Bakersfield housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend
Forecast for Bakersfield is 72%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 72% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house prices in
Bakersfield is 72% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2014 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Bakersfield
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Bakersfield, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.01%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -8.5%
Last 5 Years                                     -50%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Last 20 Years                                   31%
Decline From All Time High               50.34%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1981      14.07%
1982      -1.08%
1983      1.41%
1984      2.71%
1985      2.29%
1986      1.40%
1987      -1.58%
1988      4.20%
1989      5.46%
1990      7.93%
1991      5.51%
1992      0.87%
1993      -0.79%
1994      -7.06%
1995      0.76%
1996      -1.95%
1997      1.86%
1998      2.85%
1999      -1.86%
2000      6.40%
2001      7.54%
2002      10.61%
2003      17.08%
2004      31.53%
2005      28.96%
2006      7.66%
2007      -11.37%
2008      -28.73%
2009      -10.95%
2010      -4.28%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.01%         Rank: 163 of 381 (57th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -8.5%          Rank: 338 of 381 (11th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -50%           Rank: 369 of 381 (3rd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   19%            Rank: 254 of 381 (33rd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            31%            Rank: 345 of 351 (1st Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        50.34%

Home Price appreciation rates for Bakersfield-Delano, CA are shown above for
five time periods. For example: Bakersfield appreciated 1.01% in the Last
Quarter. At that rate, the Bakersfield Real Estate Market was ranked 163rd out
of 381 metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Bakersfield was in the
57th percentile. So Bakersfield, CA performed better in the Last Quarter than
57% of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Bakersfield, California

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Bakersfield-Delano, CA,
hereinafter referred to as "Bakersfield". The all time high in the Bakersfield
Home Price Index was 277.7 in the 4th Quarter, of 2006. The 3rd Quarter, 2011
index value was 137.9. That's a decline of 139.81 points or 50.34% below the
Bakersfield Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that
the Bakersfield Market is up 19% over the last 10 years. Home Prices in the
Bakersfield Real Estate Market have lost 8.46% over the last 12 months. Over
the last thirty years, it is up 76%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 1.38 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2011
index value of 136.53, resulting in a 1.01% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Bakersfield Market.

The Bakersfield Home Price Index increased in the last quarter after falling in
the previous 5 quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in
the Home Price Index is Bismarck, ND, with increases in the last 6 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Las Vegas, NV, with declines in the last 19 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Bakersfield Real Estate
Market was 34% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual home appreciation rate in the Bakersfield Market was -29% in the
twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest home appreciation in the Bakersfield Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 101% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2006. The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the Bakersfield
Market was -44% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Bakersfield Home Price Index
(above). The house price chart has been updated through the 3rd Quarter of
2011. For more information about Bakersfield Home Prices, look at the links
under that chart. One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation
rates for the Bakersfield Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for
appreciation rates in the state of California. Just one glance at
Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and statistics about Bakersfield Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

Historical data on the Bakersfield Home Price Index is available back to the 3rd
Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House
Price Index for the Bakersfield Market. The terms House Price Index and Home
Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Bakersfield Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Bakersfield, California

The appreciation of Bakersfield Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Bakersfield-Delano, CA, hereinafter referred to as "Bakersfield".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Bakersfield Home Prices had a rank of 163,
with appreciation of 1.01%. The top performing real estate market during the
3rd Quarter was Lewiston, ID, with appreciation of 7.64%. The worst market
during that period was Sumter, SC, with appreciation of -5.30%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 0.70%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.72%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Bakersfield Home Prices had a rank of 338, with
appreciation during the year of -8.46%. The top performing market during the
last year was Elmira, NY, with appreciation of 6.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -15.4%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -3.41%. The
average appreciation was -4.02%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Bakersfield Home Prices
ranked 369, with a total appreciation of -50.3%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 27%. The
worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of -64%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -6%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -10%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Bakersfield Home Prices
had a rank of 254, with appreciation during the decade of 19%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%.
The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 26%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 26%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Bakersfield Home Prices
had a rank of 345, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of 31%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY, with
appreciation of 214%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Merced,
CA, with appreciation of 6%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 87%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Bakersfield Real Estate
Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Bakersfield. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless
specifically stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly
rates of appreciation.)



PART 5: NATIONAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Local economies and home values are influenced in varying degrees by
national economic conditions. Forecasts for some relevant indicators are
included below. The date shown to the right of the forecast represents the
target date of the forecast.   Abbreviations: SSAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate),  Q1 (First Quarter),  Q2 (Second Quarter),  etc.

U. S. Home Values (12 Month Appreciation or Depreciation)  -1.9%  (2012-Q4)
30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate:  3.25%  (December, 2012)
15 Year Mortgage Rate:  2.93%  (December, 2012)
Adjustable Rate Mortgage Rate:  0.00%  (December, 2012)
Housing Starts (SSAR in 1000's):  732  (November, 2012)
Prime Interest Rate:  0.11%  (December, 2012)
US Unemployment Rate (Overall):  8.63%  (November, 2012)
US Inflation or Deflation (-):  3.04%  (November, 2012)
Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel):  $92.4  (November, 2012)
Natural Gas Prices (Dollars Per Million BTU):  $3.37  (November, 2012)
U.S. Dollar Trade Weighted Currency Exchange Index:   105  (December, 2012)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $15.6  (2012-Q2)
GNP (Gross National Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $16.0  (2012-Q2)
Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) in Billions:  $-1704  (2011)
National Debt (Trillions):  $14.6  (2012-Q2)
Fed Funds Rate:  4.03%  (December, 2012)
S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index):  1245  (December, 2012)
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average):  12030  (December, 2012)
U. S. Exports (SSAR in Billions):  $2338  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Imports (SSAR in Billions):  $3042  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Personal Savings Rate:  4.61%  (November, 2012)

































_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page    Contact Us     Privacy Policy    Terms of Use/Disclosure      
                                      SignalTrend Inc.  2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved