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Charlottesville, VA - House Price Index (HPI) - 23 Year Chart
Charlottesville Real Estate Market Forecast
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Charlottesville, VA single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Friday, January 27, 2012. Real
estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Charlottesville Real Estate Index: 23 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
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Charlottesville Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  9362
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Charlottesville, Virginia


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      94%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Charlottesville housing market for the
12 months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for Charlottesville is 94%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 94% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in Charlottesville is 94% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2012 than
they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Charlottesville Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      91%

The forecast for the trend in the Charlottesville housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend
Forecast for Charlottesville is 91%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 91% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in Charlottesville is 91% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2014 than
they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Charlottesville Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Charlottesville, Virginia


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.56%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -5.0%
Last 5 Years                                     -11%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54%
Last 20 Years                                   129%
Decline From All Time High               14.74%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1981        n/a
1982        n/a
1983        n/a
1984      14.63%
1985      5.45%
1986      4.01%
1987      6.11%
1988      12.18%
1989      9.28%
1990      0.49%
1991      6.51%
1992      1.77%
1993      1.65%
1994      1.33%
1995      3.24%
1996      0.74%
1997      4.21%
1998      2.59%
1999      6.39%
2000      7.69%
2001      7.33%
2002      8.59%
2003      10.93%
2004      13.11%
2005      18.81%
2006      7.61%
2007      3.24%
2008      -4.31%
2009      -6.40%
2010      -0.50%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.56%         Rank: 108 of 381 (71st Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -5.0%          Rank: 252 of 381 (33rd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -11%           Rank: 240 of 381 (37th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   54%            Rank: 24 of 381 (93rd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            129%          Rank: 38 of 351 (89th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        14.74%

Home Price appreciation rates for Charlottesville, VA are shown above for five
time periods. For example: Charlottesville appreciated 1.56% in the Last
Quarter. At that rate, the Charlottesville Real Estate Market was ranked 108th
out of 381 metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Charlottesville was
in the 71st percentile. So Charlottesville, VA performed better in the Last
Quarter than 71% of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in
Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Charlottesville, Virginia

The all time high in the Charlottesville Home Price Index was 245.6 in the 4th
Quarter, of 2007. The 3rd Quarter, 2011 index value was 209.4. That's a
decline of 36.20 points or 14.74% below the Charlottesville Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Charlottesville Market is up
54% over the last 10 years. Home Prices in the Charlottesville Real Estate
Market have lost 5.02% over the last 12 months.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 3.21 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2011
index value of 206.16, resulting in a 1.56% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Charlottesville Market.

The Charlottesville Home Price Index increased in the last quarter after falling in
the previous 3 quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in
the Home Price Index is Bismarck, ND, with increases in the last 6 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Las Vegas, NV, with declines in the last 19 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Charlottesville Real Estate
Market was 20% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual home appreciation rate in the Charlottesville Market was -6% in
the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2009.

The highest home appreciation in the Charlottesville Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 50% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2006. The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the
Charlottesville Market was -13% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter
of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Charlottesville Home Price Index
(above). The house price chart has been updated through the 3rd Quarter of
2011. For more information about Charlottesville Home Prices, look at the links
under that chart. One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation
rates for the Charlottesville Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for
appreciation rates in the state of Virginia. Just one glance at
Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and statistics about Charlottesville
Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

Historical data on the Charlottesville Home Price Index is available back to the
3rd Quarter, of 1985. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the
House Price Index for the Charlottesville Market. The terms House Price Index
and Home Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing
Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Charlottesville Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Charlottesville, Virginia

The appreciation of Charlottesville Home Prices relative to 380 other
metropolitan areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or
more cities. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies
the top and bottom performing markets as well as the average and median
performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Charlottesville Home Prices had a rank of 108,
with appreciation of 1.56%. The top performing real estate market during the
3rd Quarter was Lewiston, ID, with appreciation of 7.64%. The worst market
during that period was Sumter, SC, with appreciation of -5.30%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 0.70%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.72%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Charlottesville Home Prices had a rank of 252, with
appreciation during the year of -5.02%. The top performing market during the
last year was Elmira, NY, with appreciation of 6.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -15.4%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -3.41%. The
average appreciation was -4.02%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Charlottesville Home
Prices ranked 240, with a total appreciation of -11.4%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of
27%. The worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of
-64%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -6%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -10%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Charlottesville Home
Prices had a rank of 24, with appreciation during the decade of 54%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%.
The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 26%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 26%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Charlottesville Home
Prices had a rank of 38, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of
129%. The top performing real estate market during the period was Casper,
WY, with appreciation of 214%. The worst market during the last 20 years was
Merced, CA, with appreciation of 6%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 87%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Charlottesville Real
Estate Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1985. The chart has been
updated through the 3rd Quarter of 2011. All calculations are based on the
quarterly value of the House Price Index for Charlottesville. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless
specifically stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly
rates of appreciation.)



PART 5: NATIONAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Local economies and home values are influenced in varying degrees by
national economic conditions. Forecasts for some relevant indicators are
included below. The date shown to the right of the forecast represents the
target date of the forecast.   Abbreviations: SSAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate),  Q1 (First Quarter),  Q2 (Second Quarter),  etc.

U. S. Home Values (12 Month Appreciation or Depreciation)  -1.9%  (2012-Q4)
30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate:  3.25%  (December, 2012)
15 Year Mortgage Rate:  2.93%  (December, 2012)
Adjustable Rate Mortgage Rate:  0.00%  (December, 2012)
Housing Starts (SSAR in 1000's):  732  (November, 2012)
Prime Interest Rate:  0.11%  (December, 2012)
US Unemployment Rate (Overall):  8.63%  (November, 2012)
US Inflation or Deflation (-):  3.04%  (November, 2012)
Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel):  $92.4  (November, 2012)
Natural Gas Prices (Dollars Per Million BTU):  $3.37  (November, 2012)
U.S. Dollar Trade Weighted Currency Exchange Index:   105  (December, 2012)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $15.6  (2012-Q2)
GNP (Gross National Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $16.0  (2012-Q2)
Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) in Billions:  $-1704  (2011)
National Debt (Trillions):  $14.6  (2012-Q2)
Fed Funds Rate:  4.03%  (December, 2012)
S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index):  1245  (December, 2012)
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average):  12030  (December, 2012)
U. S. Exports (SSAR in Billions):  $2338  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Imports (SSAR in Billions):  $3042  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Personal Savings Rate:  4.61%  (November, 2012)

































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