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Fresno, CA - House Price Index (HPI) - 31 Year Chart
Fresno Real Estate Market Forecast
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Fresno, CA single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Thursday, April 19, 2012. Real estate
forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Fresno Real Estate Index: 31 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
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Fresno Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  10187
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Fresno, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      74%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Fresno housing market for the 12
months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for Fresno is 74%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 74% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in Fresno is 74% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is
correct, home prices will be lower in the 4th Quarter of 2012 than they were in
the 4th Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Fresno Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      71%

The forecast for the trend in the Fresno housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend Forecast for
Fresno is 71%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 71% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house prices in
Fresno is 71% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be lower in the 4th Quarter of 2014 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Fresno Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Fresno, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.46%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -7.5%
Last 5 Years                                     -47%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Last 20 Years                                   44%
Decline From All Time High               46.92%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1982      -5.62%
1983      -7.28%
1984      4.16%
1985      1.91%
1986      4.69%
1987      -0.58%
1988      4.34%
1989      7.31%
1990      11.34%
1991      8.27%
1992      1.11%
1993      -0.05%
1994      -4.14%
1995      1.49%
1996      -2.05%
1997      2.61%
1998      2.10%
1999      -0.26%
2000      5.83%
2001      10.41%
2002      16.18%
2003      21.07%
2004      25.97%
2005      24.57%
2006      3.85%
2007      -11.64%
2008      -25.53%
2009      -7.42%
2010      -5.40%
2011      -7.52%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.46%         Rank: 160 of 381 (58th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -7.5%          Rank: 349 of 381 (8th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -47%           Rank: 362 of 381 (5th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   22%            Rank: 218 of 381 (42nd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            44%            Rank: 334 of 355 (5th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        46.92%

Home Price appreciation rates for Fresno, CA are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Fresno appreciated 0.46% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Fresno Real Estate Market was ranked 160th out of 381 metropolitan
areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Fresno was in the 58th percentile. So
Fresno, CA performed better in the Last Quarter than 58% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Fresno, California

The all time high in the Fresno Home Price Index was 283.9 in the 3rd Quarter,
of 2006. The 4th Quarter, 2011 index value was 150.7. That's a decline of
133.21 points or 46.92% below the Fresno Home Price Index all time high.  The
Home Price Index indicates that the Fresno Market is up 22% over the last 10
years. Home Prices in the Fresno Real Estate Market have lost 7.52% over the
last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 87%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 0.69 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2011
index value of 150.02, resulting in a 0.46% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Fresno Market.

The Fresno Home Price Index has increased for the last 2 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Wheeling, WV; Washington, DC; St. Cloud, MN and Grand
Forks, ND, with increases in the last 4 consecutive quarters. The current record
holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index is Las Vegas, NV, with
declines in the last 20 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Fresno Real Estate Market
was 28% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2004. The worst
annual home appreciation rate in the Fresno Market was -26% in the twelve
months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest home appreciation in the Fresno Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 90% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2005.
The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the Fresno Market
was -40% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Fresno Home Price Index (above).
The house price chart has been updated through the 4th Quarter of 2011. For
more information about Fresno Home Prices, look at the links under that chart.
One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation rates for the Fresno
Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for appreciation rates in the state
of California. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of residential property
values. Bookmark this page! Then Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and
statistics about Fresno Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need
them.

Historical data on the Fresno Home Price Index is available back to the 1st
Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House
Price Index for the Fresno Market. The terms House Price Index and Home
Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Fresno Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Fresno, California

The appreciation of Fresno Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2011, Fresno Home Prices had a rank of 160, with
appreciation of 0.46%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Vineland, NJ, with appreciation of 6.09%. The worst market during
that period was Valdosta, GA, with appreciation of -5.24%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.24%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.29%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Fresno Home Prices had a rank of 349, with
appreciation during the year of -7.52%. The top performing market during the
last year was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 4.7%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -18.1%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -2.61%. The
average appreciation was -2.93%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2011, Fresno Home Prices
ranked 362, with a total appreciation of -46.7%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 23%. The
worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of -62%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -7%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -11%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2011, Fresno Home Prices had
a rank of 218, with appreciation during the decade of 22%. The top performing
market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%. The worst
real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 24%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 25%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2011, Fresno Home Prices had
a rank of 334, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of 44%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY, with
appreciation of 222%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Las
Vegas, NV, with appreciation of 5%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 85%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 87%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Fresno Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Fresno. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless
specifically stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly
rates of appreciation.)




























































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