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Harrisburg, PA - House Price Index (HPI) - 29 Year Chart
Harrisburg Real Estate Market
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Thursday, March 29, 2012. Real
estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Harrisburg Real Estate Index: 29 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
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Harrisburg Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  10206
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      90%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Harrisburg housing market for the 12
months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for Harrisburg is 90%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 90% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in Harrisburg is 90% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is
correct, home prices will be lower in the 4th Quarter of 2012 than they were in
the 4th Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Harrisburg Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      87%

The forecast for the trend in the Harrisburg housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend
Forecast for Harrisburg is 87%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 87% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house prices in
Harrisburg is 87% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be lower in the 4th Quarter of 2014 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Harrisburg
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -0.03%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -1.8%
Last 5 Years                                     0%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
Last 20 Years                                   84%
Decline From All Time High               4.13%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1982      6.26%
1983      4.96%
1984      1.66%
1985      7.01%
1986      6.47%
1987      6.87%
1988      7.95%
1989      3.85%
1990      2.64%
1991      4.35%
1992      3.26%
1993      3.13%
1994      2.38%
1995      4.38%
1996      0.69%
1997      4.07%
1998      3.55%
1999      0.01%
2000      2.62%
2001      5.15%
2002      3.64%
2003      5.86%
2004      6.42%
2005      10.51%
2006      6.55%
2007      3.07%
2008      0.62%
2009      -0.18%
2010      -1.20%
2011      -1.82%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.03%        Rank: 236 of 381 (38th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -1.8%          Rank: 150 of 381 (60th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              0%              Rank: 108 of 381 (71st Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   38%            Rank: 82 of 381 (78th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            84%            Rank: 185 of 355 (48th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        4.13%

Home Price appreciation rates for Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA are shown above for
five time periods. For example: Harrisburg appreciated -0.03% in the Last
Quarter. At that rate, the Harrisburg Real Estate Market was ranked 236th out
of 381 metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Harrisburg was in the
38th percentile. So Harrisburg, PA performed better in the Last Quarter than
38% of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA,
hereinafter referred to as "Harrisburg". The all time high in the Harrisburg Home
Price Index was 177.4 in the 1st Quarter, of 2009. The 4th Quarter, 2011 index
value was 170.1. That's a decline of 7.32 points or 4.13% below the Harrisburg
Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the
Harrisburg Market is up 38% over the last 10 years. Home Prices in the
Harrisburg Real Estate Market have lost 1.82% over the last 12 months. Over
the last thirty years, it is up 205%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 0.05 points lower than the 3rd Quarter, 2011
index value of 170.10, resulting in a 0.03% decline for the 4th Quarter in the
Harrisburg Market.

The Harrisburg Home Price Index has declined for the last 4 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Las Vegas, NV, with declines in the last 20 consecutive quarters. The
current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index are
Wheeling, WV; Washington, DC; St. Cloud, MN and Grand Forks, ND, with
increases in the last 3 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Harrisburg Real Estate
Market was 36% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1982. The
worst annual home appreciation rate in the Harrisburg Market was -16% in the
twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1983.

The highest home appreciation in the Harrisburg Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 27% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2006. The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the Harrisburg
Market was -12% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1985.

This page provides a long term graph of the Harrisburg Home Price Index
(above). The house price chart has been updated through the 4th Quarter of
2011. For more information about Harrisburg Home Prices, look at the links
under that chart. One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation
rates for the Harrisburg Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for
appreciation rates in the state of Pennsylvania. Just one glance at
Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and statistics about Harrisburg Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

Historical data on the Harrisburg Home Price Index is available back to the 4th
Quarter, of 1979. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House
Price Index for the Harrisburg Market. The terms House Price Index and Home
Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Harrisburg Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

The appreciation of Harrisburg Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, hereinafter referred to as "Harrisburg".

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2011, Harrisburg Home Prices had a rank of 236, with
appreciation of -0.03%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Vineland, NJ, with appreciation of 6.09%. The worst market during
that period was Valdosta, GA, with appreciation of -5.24%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.24%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.29%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Harrisburg Home Prices had a rank of 150, with
appreciation during the year of -1.82%. The top performing market during the
last year was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 4.7%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -18.1%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -2.61%. The
average appreciation was -2.93%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2011, Harrisburg Home Prices
ranked 108, with a total appreciation of 0.4%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 23%. The
worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of -62%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -7%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -11%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2011, Harrisburg Home Prices
had a rank of 82, with appreciation during the decade of 38%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%.
The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 24%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 25%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2011, Harrisburg Home Prices
had a rank of 185, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of 84%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY, with
appreciation of 222%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Las
Vegas, NV, with appreciation of 5%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 85%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 87%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Harrisburg Real Estate
Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1979. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Harrisburg. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless
specifically stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly
rates of appreciation.)




























































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