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Harrisonburg, VA - House Price Index (HPI) - 21 Year Chart
Harrisonburg Real Estate Market
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Harrisonburg, VA single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Thursday, March 29, 2012. Real
estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Harrisonburg Real Estate Index: 21 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
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Harrisonburg Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  10207
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Harrisonburg, Virginia


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      89%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Harrisonburg housing market for the
12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for Harrisonburg is 89%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 89% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in Harrisonburg is 89% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast
is correct, home prices will be lower in the 4th Quarter of 2012 than they were in
the 4th Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Harrisonburg Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      87%

The forecast for the trend in the Harrisonburg housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend
Forecast for Harrisonburg is 87%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 87% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house prices in
Harrisonburg is 87% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is
correct, home prices will be lower in the 4th Quarter of 2014 than they were in
the 4th Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Harrisonburg Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Harrisonburg, Virginia


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.25%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -0.8%
Last 5 Years                                     -8%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52%
Last 20 Years                                   99%
Decline From All Time High               10.09%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1982        n/a
1983        n/a
1984        n/a
1985        n/a
1986        n/a
1987      13.01%
1988      2.21%
1989      12.36%
1990      1.30%
1991      3.34%
1992      3.29%
1993      2.53%
1994      2.22%
1995      0.31%
1996      3.95%
1997      1.77%
1998      3.84%
1999      0.35%
2000      4.08%
2001      5.22%
2002      5.20%
2003      6.75%
2004      12.45%
2005      20.20%
2006      9.21%
2007      1.51%
2008      -1.50%
2009      -3.65%
2010      -4.10%
2011      -0.75%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.25%         Rank: 72 of 381 (81st Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -0.8%          Rank: 87 of 381 (77th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -8%             Rank: 210 of 381 (45th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   52%            Rank: 27 of 381 (93rd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            99%            Rank: 111 of 355 (68th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        10.09%

Home Price appreciation rates for Harrisonburg, VA are shown above for five
time periods. For example: Harrisonburg appreciated 1.25% in the Last
Quarter. At that rate, the Harrisonburg Real Estate Market was ranked 72nd out
of 381 metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Harrisonburg was in the
81st percentile. So Harrisonburg, VA performed better in the Last Quarter than
81% of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Harrisonburg, Virginia

The all time high in the Harrisonburg Home Price Index was 208.7 in the 2nd
Quarter, of 2008. The 4th Quarter, 2011 index value was 187.7. That's a
decline of 21.06 points or 10.09% below the Harrisonburg Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Harrisonburg Market is up
52% over the last 10 years. Home Prices in the Harrisonburg Real Estate
Market have lost 0.75% over the last 12 months.

The 4th Quarter index value was 2.32 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2011
index value of 185.36, resulting in a 1.25% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Harrisonburg Market.

The Harrisonburg Home Price Index has increased for the last 2 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index are Wheeling, WV; Washington, DC; St. Cloud, MN and Grand
Forks, ND, with increases in the last 3 consecutive quarters. The current record
holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index is Las Vegas, NV, with
declines in the last 20 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Harrisonburg Real Estate
Market was 20% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual home appreciation rate in the Harrisonburg Market was -6% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest home appreciation in the Harrisonburg Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 49% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2006. The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the
Harrisonburg Market was -13% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Harrisonburg Home Price Index
(above). The house price chart has been updated through the 4th Quarter of
2011. For more information about Harrisonburg Home Prices, look at the links
under that chart. One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation
rates for the Harrisonburg Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for
appreciation rates in the state of Virginia. Just one glance at
Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and statistics about Harrisonburg Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

Historical data on the Harrisonburg Home Price Index is available back to the
2nd Quarter, of 1987. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the
House Price Index for the Harrisonburg Market. The terms House Price Index
and Home Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing
Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Harrisonburg Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Harrisonburg, Virginia

The appreciation of Harrisonburg Home Prices relative to 380 other
metropolitan areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or
more cities. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies
the top and bottom performing markets as well as the average and median
performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2011, Harrisonburg Home Prices had a rank of 72,
with appreciation of 1.25%. The top performing real estate market during the
4th Quarter was Vineland, NJ, with appreciation of 6.09%. The worst market
during that period was Valdosta, GA, with appreciation of -5.24%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.24%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.29%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Harrisonburg Home Prices had a rank of 87, with
appreciation during the year of -0.75%. The top performing market during the
last year was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 4.7%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -18.1%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -2.61%. The
average appreciation was -2.93%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2011, Harrisonburg Home
Prices ranked 210, with a total appreciation of -8.3%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of
23%. The worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of
-62%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -7%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -11%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2011, Harrisonburg Home
Prices had a rank of 27, with appreciation during the decade of 52%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%.
The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 24%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 25%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2011, Harrisonburg Home
Prices had a rank of 111, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of
99%. The top performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY,
with appreciation of 222%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Las
Vegas, NV, with appreciation of 5%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 85%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 87%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Harrisonburg Real
Estate Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1987. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Harrisonburg. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total appreciation over each time period.
(Unless specifically stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of appreciation.)




























































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