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Miami, FL - House Price Index (HPI) - 32 Year Chart
Miami Real Estate Market
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1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL single family home
prices in logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Friday, September 30,
2011. Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Miami Real Estate Index: 32 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
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Miami Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  8756
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Miami, Florida


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      87%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Miami housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for Miami is 87%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 87% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house prices in
Miami is 87% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2012 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Miami Real
Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      81%

The forecast for the trend in the Miami housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 3rd Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend Forecast for
Miami is 81%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 81% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house prices in
Miami is 81% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2014 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Miami Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Miami, Florida


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         1.30%
Last Year                              -7.7%
Last 5 Years                         -43%
Last 10 Years                       35%
Last 20 Years                       121%
Decline From All Time High   44.74%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1981      2.91%
1982      4.22%
1983      -0.46%
1984      -1.14%
1985      -1.91%
1986      5.79%
1987      4.98%
1988      6.11%
1989      3.11%
1990      2.25%
1991      4.24%
1992      2.61%
1993      8.61%
1994      2.05%
1995      6.33%
1996      1.78%
1997      2.67%
1998      5.35%
1999      2.24%
2000      7.91%
2001      13.29%
2002      14.52%
2003      14.68%
2004      20.36%
2005      28.15%
2006      14.67%
2007      -1.67%
2008      -27.40%
2009      -12.74%
2010      -3.94%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.30%         Rank: 137 of 381 (64th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -7.7%          Rank: 323 of 381 (15th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -43%           Rank: 349 of 381 (8th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   35%            Rank: 112 of 381 (70th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            121%          Rank: 52 of 351 (85th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        44.74%

Home Price appreciation rates for Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL are shown
above for five time periods. For example: Miami appreciated 1.30% in the Last
Quarter. At that rate, the Miami Real Estate Market was ranked 137th out of
381 metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Miami was in the 64th
percentile. So Miami, FL performed better in the Last Quarter than 64% of the
381 metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Miami, Florida

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL,
hereinafter referred to as "Miami". The all time high in the Miami Home Price
Index was 342.0 in the 2nd Quarter, of 2007. The 3rd Quarter, 2011 index
value was 189.0. That's a decline of 153.00 points or 44.74% below the Miami
Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Miami
Market is up 35% over the last 10 years. Home Prices in the Miami Real Estate
Market have lost 7.71% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is
up 241%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 2.42 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2011
index value of 186.53, resulting in a 1.30% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the Miami
Market.

The Miami Home Price Index increased in the last quarter after falling in the
previous 3 quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the
Home Price Index is Bismarck, ND, with increases in the last 6 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Las Vegas, NV, with declines in the last 19 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Miami Real Estate Market
was 28% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2005. The worst
annual home appreciation rate in the Miami Market was -27% in the twelve
months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest home appreciation in the Miami Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 82% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2006.
The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the Miami Market was
-41% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph of the Miami Home Price Index (above).
The house price chart has been updated through the 3rd Quarter of 2011. For
more information about Miami Home Prices, look at the links under that chart.
One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation rates for the Miami
Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for appreciation rates in the state
of Florida. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of residential property
values. Bookmark this page! Then Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and
statistics about Miami Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need
them.

Historical data on the Miami Home Price Index is available back to the 2nd
Quarter, of 1976. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House
Price Index for the Miami Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price
Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Miami Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Miami, Florida

The appreciation of Miami Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan areas
is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities. Five
different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL, hereinafter referred to as "Miami".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Miami Home Prices had a rank of 137, with
appreciation of 1.30%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Lewiston, ID, with appreciation of 7.64%. The worst market during
that period was Sumter, SC, with appreciation of -5.30%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 0.70%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.72%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Miami Home Prices had a rank of 323, with
appreciation during the year of -7.71%. The top performing market during the
last year was Elmira, NY, with appreciation of 6.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -15.4%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -3.41%. The
average appreciation was -4.02%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Miami Home Prices
ranked 349, with a total appreciation of -42.7%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 27%. The
worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of -64%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -6%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -10%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Miami Home Prices had
a rank of 112, with appreciation during the decade of 35%. The top performing
market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%. The worst
real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 26%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 26%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Miami Home Prices had
a rank of 52, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of 121%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY, with
appreciation of 214%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Merced,
CA, with appreciation of 6%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 87%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Miami Real Estate
Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1976. The chart has been
updated through the 3rd Quarter of 2011. All calculations are based on the
quarterly value of the House Price Index for Miami. Real estate appreciation
figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless specifically
stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly rates of
appreciation.)



PART 5: NATIONAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS  
Local economies and home values are influenced in varying degrees by
national economic conditions. Forecasts for some relevant indicators are
included below. The date shown to the right of the forecast represents the
target date of the forecast.   Abbreviations: SSAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate),  Q1 (First Quarter),  Q2 (Second Quarter),  etc.  

U. S. Home Values (12 Month Appreciation or Depreciation)  -6.9%  (2012-Q3)
30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate:  3.25%  (November, 2012)
15 Year Mortgage Rate:  2.95%  (November, 2012)
Adjustable Rate Mortgage Rate:  0.00%  (November, 2012)
Housing Starts (SSAR in 1000's):  732  (November, 2012)
Prime Interest Rate:  0.11%  (November, 2012)
US Unemployment Rate (Overall):  8.63%  (November, 2012)
US Inflation or Deflation (-):  3.04%  (November, 2012)
Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel):  $92.4  (November, 2012)
Natural Gas Prices (Dollars Per Million BTU):  $3.37  (November, 2012)
U.S. Dollar Trade Weighted Currency Exchange Index:   105  (December, 2012)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $15.6  (2012-Q2)
GNP (Gross National Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $16.0  (2012-Q2)
Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) in Billions:  $-1704  (2011)
National Debt (Trillions):  $14.6  (2012-Q2)
Fed Funds Rate:  4.11%  (November, 2012)
S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index):  1245  (December, 2012)
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average):  12030  (December, 2012)
U. S. Exports (SSAR in Billions):  $2338  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Imports (SSAR in Billions):  $3042  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Personal Savings Rate:  4.61%  (November, 2012)

































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