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Modesto, CA - House Price Index (HPI) - 31 Year Chart
Home Price Index: Modesto, CA
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Modesto, CA single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Wednesday, April 25, 2012. Real estate
forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Modesto Real Estate Index: 31 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
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Current Analysis: Modesto Home Price Index
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Commentary  10287
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Modesto, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      80%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Modesto housing market for the 12
months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for Modesto is 80%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 80% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in Modesto is 80% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is
correct, home prices will be lower in the 4th Quarter of 2012 than they were in
the 4th Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Modesto Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      73%

The forecast for the trend in the Modesto housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend
Forecast for Modesto is 73%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 73% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house prices in
Modesto is 73% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be lower in the 4th Quarter of 2014 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Modesto
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Modesto, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         0.11%
Last Year                              -8.1%
Last 5 Years                         -59%
Last 10 Years                       -17%
Last 20 Years                       11%
Decline From All Time High   59.95%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1982      4.94%
1983      -9.45%
1984      1.30%
1985      5.02%
1986      8.13%
1987      8.07%
1988      11.72%
1989      23.66%
1990      8.27%
1991      -1.88%
1992      -1.36%
1993      -1.77%
1994      -7.50%
1995      1.55%
1996      -1.20%
1997      1.57%
1998      5.45%
1999      3.57%
2000      14.21%
2001      17.90%
2002      12.78%
2003      14.58%
2004      23.39%
2005      26.66%
2006      -0.70%
2007      -18.85%
2008      -36.05%
2009      -8.61%
2010      -5.59%
2011      -8.10%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.11%         Rank: 216 of 381 (43rd Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -8.1%          Rank: 356 of 381 (6th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -59%           Rank: 379 of 381 (Bottom .50%)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -17%           Rank: 374 of 381 (1st Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            11%            Rank: 353 of 355 (Bottom .50%)
Decline From All Time High        59.95%

Home Price appreciation rates for Modesto, CA are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Modesto appreciated 0.11% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Modesto Real Estate Market was ranked 216th out of 381 metropolitan
areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Modesto was in the 43rd percentile. So
Modesto, CA performed better in the Last Quarter than 43% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Modesto, California

The all time high in the Modesto Home Price Index was 310.2 in the 1st Quarter,
of 2006. The 4th Quarter, 2011 index value was 124.2. That's a decline of
185.95 points or 59.95% below the Modesto Home Price Index all time high.  
The Home Price Index indicates that the Modesto Market is down 17% over the
last 10 years. Home Prices in the Modesto Real Estate Market have lost 8.10%
over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 92%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 0.14 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2011
index value of 124.07, resulting in a 0.11% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Modesto Market.

The Modesto Home Price Index increased in the last quarter after falling in the
previous 4 quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases in
the Home Price Index are Wheeling, WV; Washington, DC; St. Cloud, MN and
Grand Forks, ND, with increases in the last 3 consecutive quarters. The current
record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index is Las Vegas,
NV, with declines in the last 20 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Modesto Real Estate Market
was 30% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2005. The worst
annual home appreciation rate in the Modesto Market was -37% in the twelve
months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest home appreciation in the Modesto Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 79% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2005.
The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the Modesto Market
was -53% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Modesto Home Price Index
(above). The house price chart has been updated through the 4th Quarter of
2011. For more information about Modesto Home Prices, look at the links under
that chart. One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation rates for
the Modesto Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for appreciation
rates in the state of California. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart.com's long
term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of
residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then Forecast-Chart.com's
detailed research and statistics about Modesto Home Prices will be at your
fingertips when you need them.

Historical data on the Modesto Home Price Index is available back to the 2nd
Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House
Price Index for the Modesto Market. The terms House Price Index and Home
Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Modesto Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Modesto, California

The appreciation of Modesto Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2011, Modesto Home Prices had a rank of 216, with
appreciation of 0.11%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Vineland, NJ, with appreciation of 6.09%. The worst market during
that period was Valdosta, GA, with appreciation of -5.24%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.24%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.29%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Modesto Home Prices had a rank of 356, with
appreciation during the year of -8.10%. The top performing market during the
last year was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 4.7%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -18.1%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -2.61%. The
average appreciation was -2.93%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2011, Modesto Home Prices
ranked 379, with a total appreciation of -58.9%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 23%. The
worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of -62%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -7%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -11%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2011, Modesto Home Prices
had a rank of 374, with appreciation during the decade of -17%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%.
The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 24%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 25%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2011, Modesto Home Prices
had a rank of 353, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of 11%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY, with
appreciation of 222%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Las
Vegas, NV, with appreciation of 5%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 85%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 87%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Modesto Real Estate
Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1977. The chart has been
updated through the 4th Quarter of 2011. All calculations are based on the
quarterly value of the House Price Index for Modesto. Real estate appreciation
figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless specifically
stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly rates of
appreciation.)




























































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