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Winchester, VA - House Price Index (HPI) - 18 Year Chart
Winchester Real Estate Market
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Winchester, VA-WV single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Wednesday, March 28, 2012.
Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Winchester Real Estate Index: 18 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
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Winchester Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  10433
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Winchester, Virginia


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      75%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Winchester housing market for the 12
months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for Winchester is 75%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 75% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in Winchester is 75% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast
is correct, home prices will be lower in the 4th Quarter of 2012 than they were in
the 4th Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Winchester Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      71%

The forecast for the trend in the Winchester housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend
Forecast for Winchester is 71%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 71% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house prices in
Winchester is 71% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be lower in the 4th Quarter of 2014 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Winchester
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Winchester, Virginia


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         0.80%
Last Year                              -0.3%
Last 5 Years                         -32%
Last 10 Years                       33%
Last 20 Years                       67%
Decline From All Time High   32.57%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1982        n/a
1983        n/a
1984        n/a
1985        n/a
1986        n/a
1987        n/a
1988        n/a
1989        n/a
1990      0.22%
1991      3.83%
1992      0.01%
1993      0.91%
1994      -3.21%
1995      2.75%
1996      1.62%
1997      4.91%
1998      0.94%
1999      2.21%
2000      5.61%
2001      7.63%
2002      10.74%
2003      11.97%
2004      22.24%
2005      23.35%
2006      4.94%
2007      -8.10%
2008      -15.46%
2009      -10.67%
2010      -2.04%
2011      -0.30%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.80%         Rank: 112 of 381 (70th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -0.3%          Rank: 60 of 381 (84th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -32%           Rank: 326 of 381 (14th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   33%            Rank: 124 of 381 (67th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            67%            Rank: 267 of 355 (24th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        32.57%

Home Price appreciation rates for Winchester, VA-WV are shown above for five
time periods. For example: Winchester appreciated 0.80% in the Last Quarter.
At that rate, the Winchester Real Estate Market was ranked 112th out of 381
metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Winchester was in the 70th
percentile. So Winchester, VA performed better in the Last Quarter than 70% of
the 381 metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Winchester, Virginia

The all time high in the Winchester Home Price Index was 260.0 in the 2nd
Quarter, of 2006. The 4th Quarter, 2011 index value was 175.3. That's a
decline of 84.68 points or 32.57% below the Winchester Home Price Index all
time high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Winchester Market is up
33% over the last 10 years. Home Prices in the Winchester Real Estate Market
have lost 0.30% over the last 12 months.

The 4th Quarter index value was 1.39 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2011
index value of 173.95, resulting in a 0.80% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Winchester Market.

The Winchester Home Price Index increased in the last quarter after falling in
the previous 2 quarters. The current record holders for consecutive increases
in the Home Price Index are Wheeling, WV; Washington, DC; St. Cloud, MN and
Grand Forks, ND, with increases in the last 3 consecutive quarters. The current
record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index is Las Vegas,
NV, with declines in the last 20 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Winchester Real Estate
Market was 26% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual home appreciation rate in the Winchester Market was -15% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest home appreciation in the Winchester Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 72% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the Winchester
Market was -31% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the Winchester Home Price Index
(above). The house price chart has been updated through the 4th Quarter of
2011. For more information about Winchester Home Prices, look at the links
under that chart. One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation
rates for the Winchester Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for
appreciation rates in the state of Virginia. Just one glance at
Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and statistics about Winchester Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

Historical data on the Winchester Home Price Index is available back to the 2nd
Quarter, of 1990. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House
Price Index for the Winchester Market. The terms House Price Index and Home
Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Winchester Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Winchester, Virginia

The appreciation of Winchester Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2011, Winchester Home Prices had a rank of 112,
with appreciation of 0.80%. The top performing real estate market during the
4th Quarter was Vineland, NJ, with appreciation of 6.09%. The worst market
during that period was Valdosta, GA, with appreciation of -5.24%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 4th Quarter was 0.24%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.29%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Winchester Home Prices had a rank of 60, with
appreciation during the year of -0.30%. The top performing market during the
last year was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 4.7%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -18.1%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -2.61%. The
average appreciation was -2.93%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2011, Winchester Home Prices
ranked 326, with a total appreciation of -32.2%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 23%. The
worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of -62%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -7%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -11%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2011, Winchester Home Prices
had a rank of 124, with appreciation during the decade of 33%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%.
The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 24%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 25%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2011, Winchester Home Prices
had a rank of 267, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of 67%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY, with
appreciation of 222%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Las
Vegas, NV, with appreciation of 5%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 85%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 87%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Winchester Real
Estate Market is available back to the 2nd Quarter, of 1990. All calculations are
based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Winchester. Real
estate appreciation figures represent total appreciation over each time period.
(Unless specifically stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of appreciation.)




























































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