Market Commentary 9298
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
12324. The table shows a HDTFA of 1515 which suggests that the February,
2013 Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 13839 and
10808. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on
the right side of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Foercast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten years in
the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately below this
paragraph. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3% that the Dow
Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January, 2022 close
compared to January, 2012 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 84%
Up at least 30% 75%
Up at least 40% 67%
Up at least 50% 62%
Up at least 100% 46%
Up at least 150% 33%
Up at least 200% 10%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included so you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return. Each month, new data is
entered into the forecasting model and the Dow Industrial Average is assigned
a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst is 1. That ranking
determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average . The
data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and may change the
forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the Dow Industrial Average.
The latest ranking of the DJIA is 6. Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year
Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com.
The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10
years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the S&P 500. The indexes
with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the
S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts, click the
Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of any page, then select
the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 13930 (October, 2007)
January, 2012 close 12633
Decline From All Time High 9%
10 Year Return 27%
5 Year Low 7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 79%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 13930 in October, of 2007.
The January, 2012 close was 12633. That's a decline of 1297 points or 9%
below the Dow Industrials all time high. The Dow Industrial Index is up 27% over
the last 10 years. It has gained 6% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 415.35 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
12218, resulting in a 3.40% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The January, 2012 close at 12632.91 represents a 79% gain
since February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2012: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 49th 129% / 7% / -72%
2 Year 25% / 68th 124% / 14% / -84%
4 Year 0% / 26th 268% / 29% / -84%
8 Year 20% / 35th 467% / 64% / -65%
16 Year 134% / 51st 1003% / 180% / -54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Dow Industrial Index returned
25%. That period scored in the 68th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 68% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 14%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1297
8 Year: 1249
16 Year: 1153
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1962 - 2012: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 47th 51% / 7% / -42%
2 Year 25% / 70th 100% / 15% / -42%
4 Year 0% / 25th 150% / 31% / -34%
8 Year 20% / 34th 277% / 81% / -33%
16 Year 134% / 28th 1003% / 289% / -13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 589
2 Year: 577
4 Year: 553
8 Year: 505
16 Year: 409
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Industrial Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Industrial Average of
12324. The table shows a HDTFA of 1515 which suggests that the February,
2013 Dow Industrial Average could easily close anywhere between 13839 and
10808. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on
the right side of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Foercast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the
DJIA will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten years in
the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately below this
paragraph. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3% that the Dow
Industrial Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January, 2022 close
compared to January, 2012 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 7%
Up 93%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 84%
Up at least 30% 75%
Up at least 40% 67%
Up at least 50% 62%
Up at least 100% 46%
Up at least 150% 33%
Up at least 200% 10%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included so you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return. Each month, new data is
entered into the forecasting model and the Dow Industrial Average is assigned
a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst is 1. That ranking
determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average . The
data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and may change the
forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the Dow Industrial Average.
The latest ranking of the DJIA is 6. Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year
Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com.
The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10
years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the S&P 500. The indexes
with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the
S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts, click the
Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of any page, then select
the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Dow Industrials received the best rank (10) was 10/1985,
when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 1374. The last time that the Dow
Industrials received a rank of 9 was 6/2009, when the Dow Industrial Index
closed at 8447. The last time that the Dow Industrials received the worst rank
(1) was 10/2000, when the Dow Industrial Index closed at 10971. The last time
that the Dow Industrials received a rank of 2 was 7/2001, when the Dow
Industrial Index closed at 10523. Last month's close for the Dow Industrials is in
the Market Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 13930 (October, 2007)
January, 2012 close 12633
Decline From All Time High 9%
10 Year Return 27%
5 Year Low 7063 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 79%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJIA was 13930 in October, of 2007.
The January, 2012 close was 12633. That's a decline of 1297 points or 9%
below the Dow Industrials all time high. The Dow Industrial Index is up 27% over
the last 10 years. It has gained 6% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 415.35 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
12218, resulting in a 3.40% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 7063 in
February of 2009. The January, 2012 close at 12632.91 represents a 79% gain
since February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Industrial Average
back to February, 1900. All calculations are based on the monthly market close
in the DJIA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Industrials. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Industrial Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average categorized
by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1900 - 2012: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 49th 129% / 7% / -72%
2 Year 25% / 68th 124% / 14% / -84%
4 Year 0% / 26th 268% / 29% / -84%
8 Year 20% / 35th 467% / 64% / -65%
16 Year 134% / 51st 1003% / 180% / -54%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Dow Industrial Index returned
25%. That period scored in the 68th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 68% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1900. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1900 returned 124%. The worst returned -84%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 14%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 1311
2 Year: 1311
4 Year: 1297
8 Year: 1249
16 Year: 1153
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1962 - 2012: Dow Industrial Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 47th 51% / 7% / -42%
2 Year 25% / 70th 100% / 15% / -42%
4 Year 0% / 25th 150% / 31% / -34%
8 Year 20% / 34th 277% / 81% / -33%
16 Year 134% / 28th 1003% / 289% / -13%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Industrial Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 589
2 Year: 577
4 Year: 553
8 Year: 505
16 Year: 409
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
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| __________________________________________ |
Monthly close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) - 5 Year History |
| Dow Jones Industrial Index Forecast |
| 11500 |
| 13000 |
| 14500 |
| 10000 |
| 8500 |
| Dow Industrial Index (DJIA) Forecast Dow Jones Multi-Index Charts & Analysis |
| 7000 |
| 5500 |
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