Market Commentary 9318
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Hang Seng Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Hang Seng Stock Index of 22079.
The table shows a HDTFA of 4489 which suggests that the February, 2013
Hang Seng could easily close anywhere between 26568 and 17590. Links to
Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on the right side of
this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Foercast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Hang Seng Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the Hang Seng
Index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten years in
the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately below this
paragraph. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 5% that the Hang
Seng Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January, 2022 close
compared to January, 2012 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 8%
Up 92%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 90%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 80%
Up at least 100% 62%
Up at least 150% 45%
Up at least 200% 18%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included so you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return. Each month, new data is
entered into the forecasting model and the Hang Seng is assigned a rank from
1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the
Ten Year Forecast for the Hang Seng Stock Index . The data used in the
forecasting model is updated monthly and may change the forecast, particularly
after substantial movements in the Hang Seng. The latest ranking of the Hang
Seng Index is 7. Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the
23 stock market indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the
highest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell
3000, the Russell 1000 and the S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap
600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link in the upper right corner of any page, then select the index you
are interested in. The forecast for the Hang Seng Index is designed for Hong
Kong Dollar based investors . Returns for investors not based in the Hong Kong
Dollar will be affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the Hang Seng Stock Index received a rank of 9 was 3/2009,
when the Hang Seng Index closed at 13576. The last time that the Hang Seng
Stock Index received the worst rank (1) was 10/2007, when the Hang Seng
Index closed at 31638. The last time that the Hang Seng Stock Index received a
rank of 2 was 11/2007, when the Hang Seng Index closed at 27371. Last
month's close for the Hang Seng Stock Index is in the Market Highlights section
below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 31638 (October, 2007)
January, 2012 close 20390
Decline From All Time High 36%
10 Year Return 71%
5 Year Low 12812 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 59%
The highest all time monthly close in the Hang Seng Index was 31638 in
October, of 2007. The January, 2012 close was 20390. That's a decline of
11248 points or 36% below the Hang Seng Stock Index all time high. The Hang
Seng Index is up 71% over the last 10 years. It has lost 13% over the last 12
months.
The January close was 1956.10 points higher than the December, 2011 close
of 18434, resulting in a 10.61% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Hang Seng Stock Index was 12812 in February of
2009. The January, 2012 close at 20390.49 represents a 59% gain since
February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Hang Seng back to June,
1987. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the Hang Seng
Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Hang Seng Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Hang Seng Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Hang Seng Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1987 - 2012: Hang Seng Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -13% / 19th 110% / 13% / -59%
2 Year 1% / 30th 168% / 27% / -42%
4 Year -16% / 10th 326% / 60% / -37%
8 Year 54% / 35th 571% / 131% / -20%
16 Year 116% / 8th 688% / 323% / 74%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Hang Seng Index returned
1%. That period scored in the 30th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 30% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1987. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1987 returned 168%. The worst returned -42%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 27%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Hang Seng Index are as follows:
1 Year: 285
2 Year: 273
4 Year: 249
8 Year: 201
16 Year: 105
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Hang Seng Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Hang Seng Stock Index of 22079.
The table shows a HDTFA of 4489 which suggests that the February, 2013
Hang Seng could easily close anywhere between 26568 and 17590. Links to
Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on the right side of
this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Foercast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Hang Seng Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the Hang Seng
Index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten years in
the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately below this
paragraph. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 5% that the Hang
Seng Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January, 2022 close
compared to January, 2012 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 5%
Down at least 10% 6%
Down 8%
Up 92%
Up at least 10% 91%
Up at least 20% 90%
Up at least 30% 88%
Up at least 40% 84%
Up at least 50% 80%
Up at least 100% 62%
Up at least 150% 45%
Up at least 200% 18%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included so you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return. Each month, new data is
entered into the forecasting model and the Hang Seng is assigned a rank from
1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst is 1. That ranking determines the
Ten Year Forecast for the Hang Seng Stock Index . The data used in the
forecasting model is updated monthly and may change the forecast, particularly
after substantial movements in the Hang Seng. The latest ranking of the Hang
Seng Index is 7. Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the
23 stock market indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the
highest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell
3000, the Russell 1000 and the S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap
600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link in the upper right corner of any page, then select the index you
are interested in. The forecast for the Hang Seng Index is designed for Hong
Kong Dollar based investors . Returns for investors not based in the Hong Kong
Dollar will be affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the Hang Seng Stock Index received a rank of 9 was 3/2009,
when the Hang Seng Index closed at 13576. The last time that the Hang Seng
Stock Index received the worst rank (1) was 10/2007, when the Hang Seng
Index closed at 31638. The last time that the Hang Seng Stock Index received a
rank of 2 was 11/2007, when the Hang Seng Index closed at 27371. Last
month's close for the Hang Seng Stock Index is in the Market Highlights section
below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 31638 (October, 2007)
January, 2012 close 20390
Decline From All Time High 36%
10 Year Return 71%
5 Year Low 12812 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 59%
The highest all time monthly close in the Hang Seng Index was 31638 in
October, of 2007. The January, 2012 close was 20390. That's a decline of
11248 points or 36% below the Hang Seng Stock Index all time high. The Hang
Seng Index is up 71% over the last 10 years. It has lost 13% over the last 12
months.
The January close was 1956.10 points higher than the December, 2011 close
of 18434, resulting in a 10.61% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Hang Seng Stock Index was 12812 in February of
2009. The January, 2012 close at 20390.49 represents a 59% gain since
February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Hang Seng back to June,
1987. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the Hang Seng
Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Hang Seng Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Hang Seng Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Hang Seng Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1987 - 2012: Hang Seng Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -13% / 19th 110% / 13% / -59%
2 Year 1% / 30th 168% / 27% / -42%
4 Year -16% / 10th 326% / 60% / -37%
8 Year 54% / 35th 571% / 131% / -20%
16 Year 116% / 8th 688% / 323% / 74%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Hang Seng Index returned
1%. That period scored in the 30th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 30% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1987. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1987 returned 168%. The worst returned -42%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 27%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Hang Seng Index are as follows:
1 Year: 285
2 Year: 273
4 Year: 249
8 Year: 201
16 Year: 105
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
| __________________________________________ |
Monthly close for the Hang Seng Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
| Hang Seng Stock Index - 5 Year History |
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| Hang Seng Index Forecast |
| Hang Seng Index Forecast Dow Jones Multi-Index Charts & Analysis |
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