Market Commentary 9302
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the NASDAQ 100 Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a NASDAQ 100 Stock Index of
2696. The table shows a HDTFA of 582 which suggests that the February,
2013 NASDAQ 100 could easily close anywhere between 3278 and 2114. Links
to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on the right side
of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Foercast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the NASDAQ 100 Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the NASDAQ will
achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten years in the
future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately below this
paragraph. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3% that the
NASDAQ 100 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January, 2022 close
compared to January, 2012 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 5%
Up 95%
Up at least 10% 94%
Up at least 20% 92%
Up at least 30% 90%
Up at least 40% 83%
Up at least 50% 76%
Up at least 100% 55%
Up at least 150% 42%
Up at least 200% 30%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included so you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return. Each month, new data is
entered into the forecasting model and the NASDAQ 100 is assigned a rank
from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst is 1. That ranking determines
the Ten Year Forecast for the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index . The data used in the
forecasting model is updated monthly and may change the forecast, particularly
after substantial movements in the NASDAQ 100. The latest ranking of the
NASDAQ is 6. Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the
23 stock market indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the
highest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell
3000, the Russell 1000 and the S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap
600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link in the upper right corner of any page, then select the index you
are interested in.
The last time that the NASDAQ 100 received the best rank (10) was 3/2009,
when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at 1237. The last time that the NASDAQ
100 received a rank of 9 was 8/2010, when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at
1767. The last time that the NASDAQ 100 received the worst rank (1) was
2/2001, when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at 1908. The last time that the
NASDAQ 100 received a rank of 2 was 6/2001, when the NASDAQ 100 Index
closed at 1830. Last month's close for the NASDAQ 100 is in the Market
Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 4398 (March, 2000)
January, 2012 close 2468
Decline From All Time High 44%
10 Year Return 59%
5 Year Low 1117 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 121%
The highest all time monthly close in the NASDAQ was 4398 in March, of 2000.
The January, 2012 close was 2468. That's a decline of 1930 points or 44%
below the NASDAQ 100 all time high. The NASDAQ 100 Index is up 59% over
the last 10 years. It has gained 8% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 190.12 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
2278, resulting in a 8.35% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index was 1117 in February
of 2009. The January, 2012 close at 2467.95 represents a 121% gain since
February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the NASDAQ 100 back to
March, 1971. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
NASDAQ, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the NASDAQ 100. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
NASDAQ 100 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index categorized by
the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1971 - 2012: NASDAQ 100 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 8% / 38th 122% / 14% / -67%
2 Year 42% / 71st 274% / 29% / -77%
4 Year 34% / 37th 621% / 69% / -67%
8 Year 65% / 23rd 1263% / 193% / -59%
16 Year 317% / 15th 3407% / 725% / 155%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the NASDAQ 100 Index returned
42%. That period scored in the 71st percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 71% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1971. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1971 returned 274%. The worst returned -77%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 29%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the NASDAQ 100 Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 480
2 Year: 468
4 Year: 444
8 Year: 396
16 Year: 300
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the NASDAQ 100 Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a NASDAQ 100 Stock Index of
2696. The table shows a HDTFA of 582 which suggests that the February,
2013 NASDAQ 100 could easily close anywhere between 3278 and 2114. Links
to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on the right side
of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Foercast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the NASDAQ 100 Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the NASDAQ will
achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten years in the
future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately below this
paragraph. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3% that the
NASDAQ 100 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January, 2022 close
compared to January, 2012 close).
PROBABILITY
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 4%
Down 5%
Up 95%
Up at least 10% 94%
Up at least 20% 92%
Up at least 30% 90%
Up at least 40% 83%
Up at least 50% 76%
Up at least 100% 55%
Up at least 150% 42%
Up at least 200% 30%
Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included so you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return. Each month, new data is
entered into the forecasting model and the NASDAQ 100 is assigned a rank
from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst is 1. That ranking determines
the Ten Year Forecast for the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index . The data used in the
forecasting model is updated monthly and may change the forecast, particularly
after substantial movements in the NASDAQ 100. The latest ranking of the
NASDAQ is 6. Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the
23 stock market indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the
highest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell
3000, the Russell 1000 and the S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap
600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link in the upper right corner of any page, then select the index you
are interested in.
The last time that the NASDAQ 100 received the best rank (10) was 3/2009,
when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at 1237. The last time that the NASDAQ
100 received a rank of 9 was 8/2010, when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at
1767. The last time that the NASDAQ 100 received the worst rank (1) was
2/2001, when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at 1908. The last time that the
NASDAQ 100 received a rank of 2 was 6/2001, when the NASDAQ 100 Index
closed at 1830. Last month's close for the NASDAQ 100 is in the Market
Highlights section below.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 4398 (March, 2000)
January, 2012 close 2468
Decline From All Time High 44%
10 Year Return 59%
5 Year Low 1117 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 121%
The highest all time monthly close in the NASDAQ was 4398 in March, of 2000.
The January, 2012 close was 2468. That's a decline of 1930 points or 44%
below the NASDAQ 100 all time high. The NASDAQ 100 Index is up 59% over
the last 10 years. It has gained 8% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 190.12 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
2278, resulting in a 8.35% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index was 1117 in February
of 2009. The January, 2012 close at 2467.95 represents a 121% gain since
February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the NASDAQ 100 back to
March, 1971. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
NASDAQ, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the NASDAQ 100. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
NASDAQ 100 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index categorized by
the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1971 - 2012: NASDAQ 100 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 8% / 38th 122% / 14% / -67%
2 Year 42% / 71st 274% / 29% / -77%
4 Year 34% / 37th 621% / 69% / -67%
8 Year 65% / 23rd 1263% / 193% / -59%
16 Year 317% / 15th 3407% / 725% / 155%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the NASDAQ 100 Index returned
42%. That period scored in the 71st percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 71% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1971. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1971 returned 274%. The worst returned -77%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 29%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the NASDAQ 100 Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 480
2 Year: 468
4 Year: 444
8 Year: 396
16 Year: 300
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
| __________________________________________ |
| 1700 |
| 2000 |
| 2300 |
Monthly close for the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
| NASDAQ 100 Stock Index - 5 Year History |
| |||||||||||||||||||||||
| NASDAQ 100 Index Forecast |
| 1400 |
| 1100 |
| 2600 |
| NASDAQ 100 Index Forecast Dow Jones Multi-Index Charts & Analysis |
| 800 |
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