Market Commentary 9311
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Nikkei 225 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Nikkei 225 Stock Index of 7986. The
table shows a HDTFA of 1487 which suggests that the February, 2013 Nikkei
225 could easily close anywhere between 9473 and 6498. Links to Forecasts
for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on the right side of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500 will
be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2022 close compared
to January, 2012 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the
S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the
next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 38424 (May, 1990)
January, 2012 close 8803
Decline From All Time High 77%
10 Year Return -16%
5 Year Low 8110 (March, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 9%
The highest all time monthly close in the Nikkei 225 Index was 38424 in May, of
1990. The January, 2012 close was 8803. That's a decline of 29621 points or
77% below the Nikkei 225 Stock Index all time high. The Nikkei 225 Index is
down 16% over the last 10 years. It has lost 14% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 347.16 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
8455, resulting in a 4.11% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Nikkei 225 Stock Index was 8110 in March of
2009. The January, 2012 close at 8802.51 represents a 9% gain since March,
2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Nikkei 225 back to
September, 1984. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Nikkei 225 Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Nikkei 225 Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Nikkei 225 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Nikkei 225 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1984 - 2012: Nikkei 225 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -14% / 28th 57% / 2% / -42%
2 Year -14% / 37th 110% / 5% / -55%
4 Year -34% / 30th 200% / 6% / -52%
8 Year -15% / 58th 84% / -15% / -59%
16 Year -51% / 37th 71% / -37% / -64%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Nikkei 225 Index returned
-14%. That period scored in the 37th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 37% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1984. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1984 returned 110%. The worst returned -55%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 5%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Nikkei 225 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 318
2 Year: 306
4 Year: 282
8 Year: 234
16 Year: 138
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Nikkei 225 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Nikkei 225 Stock Index of 7986. The
table shows a HDTFA of 1487 which suggests that the February, 2013 Nikkei
225 could easily close anywhere between 9473 and 6498. Links to Forecasts
for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on the right side of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500 will
be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2022 close compared
to January, 2012 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the
S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the
next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 38424 (May, 1990)
January, 2012 close 8803
Decline From All Time High 77%
10 Year Return -16%
5 Year Low 8110 (March, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 9%
The highest all time monthly close in the Nikkei 225 Index was 38424 in May, of
1990. The January, 2012 close was 8803. That's a decline of 29621 points or
77% below the Nikkei 225 Stock Index all time high. The Nikkei 225 Index is
down 16% over the last 10 years. It has lost 14% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 347.16 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
8455, resulting in a 4.11% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Nikkei 225 Stock Index was 8110 in March of
2009. The January, 2012 close at 8802.51 represents a 9% gain since March,
2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Nikkei 225 back to
September, 1984. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Nikkei 225 Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Nikkei 225 Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Nikkei 225 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Nikkei 225 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1984 - 2012: Nikkei 225 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -14% / 28th 57% / 2% / -42%
2 Year -14% / 37th 110% / 5% / -55%
4 Year -34% / 30th 200% / 6% / -52%
8 Year -15% / 58th 84% / -15% / -59%
16 Year -51% / 37th 71% / -37% / -64%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Nikkei 225 Index returned
-14%. That period scored in the 37th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 37% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1984. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1984 returned 110%. The worst returned -55%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 5%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Nikkei 225 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 318
2 Year: 306
4 Year: 282
8 Year: 234
16 Year: 138
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
| __________________________________________ |
| 13000 |
| 15000 |
| 17000 |
Monthly close for the Nikkei 225 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
| Nikkei 225 Stock Index - 5 Year History |
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| Nikkei 225 Index Forecast |
| 11000 |
| 9000 |
| 19000 |
| 7000 |
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