Market Commentary 9317
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Straits Times Stock Index is in the table at the top
of this page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Straits Times Index of 3062.
The table shows a HDTFA of 692 which suggests that the February, 2013
Straits Times Singapore Index could easily close anywhere between 3754 and
2371. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on
the right side of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500 will
be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2022 close compared
to January, 2012 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the
S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the
next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 3862 (October, 2007)
January, 2012 close 2907
Decline From All Time High 25%
10 Year Return 74%
5 Year Low 1595 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 82%
The highest all time monthly close in the Straits Times was 3862 in October, of
2007. The January, 2012 close was 2907. That's a decline of 955 points or
25% below the Straits Times Stock Index all time high. The Straits Times Stock
Index is up 74% over the last 10 years. It has lost 9% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 260.34 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
2646, resulting in a 9.84% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Straits Times Index was 1595 in February of
2009. The January, 2012 close at 2906.69 represents a 82% gain since
February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Straits Times Singapore
Index back to April, 1988. All calculations are based on the monthly market
close in the Straits Times, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Straits Times Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Straits Times Stock Index. Just one glance at our long term charts
can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The table above presents historical data on the Straits Times Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1988 - 2012: Straits Times Stock Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -9% / 27th 126% / 9% / -54%
2 Year 6% / 42nd 138% / 15% / -56%
4 Year -5% / 33rd 167% / 24% / -60%
8 Year 58% / 65th 181% / 39% / -40%
16 Year 22% / 8th 179% / 72% / -2%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Straits Times Stock Index
returned 6%. That period scored in the 42nd percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 42% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1988. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1988 returned 138%. The worst returned -56%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Straits Times Stock Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 275
2 Year: 263
4 Year: 239
8 Year: 191
16 Year: 95
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Straits Times Stock Index is in the table at the top
of this page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Straits Times Index of 3062.
The table shows a HDTFA of 692 which suggests that the February, 2013
Straits Times Singapore Index could easily close anywhere between 3754 and
2371. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on
the right side of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500 will
be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2022 close compared
to January, 2012 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the
S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the
next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 3862 (October, 2007)
January, 2012 close 2907
Decline From All Time High 25%
10 Year Return 74%
5 Year Low 1595 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 82%
The highest all time monthly close in the Straits Times was 3862 in October, of
2007. The January, 2012 close was 2907. That's a decline of 955 points or
25% below the Straits Times Stock Index all time high. The Straits Times Stock
Index is up 74% over the last 10 years. It has lost 9% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 260.34 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
2646, resulting in a 9.84% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Straits Times Index was 1595 in February of
2009. The January, 2012 close at 2906.69 represents a 82% gain since
February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Straits Times Singapore
Index back to April, 1988. All calculations are based on the monthly market
close in the Straits Times, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Straits Times Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Straits Times Stock Index. Just one glance at our long term charts
can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The table above presents historical data on the Straits Times Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1988 - 2012: Straits Times Stock Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -9% / 27th 126% / 9% / -54%
2 Year 6% / 42nd 138% / 15% / -56%
4 Year -5% / 33rd 167% / 24% / -60%
8 Year 58% / 65th 181% / 39% / -40%
16 Year 22% / 8th 179% / 72% / -2%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Straits Times Stock Index
returned 6%. That period scored in the 42nd percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 42% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1988. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1988 returned 138%. The worst returned -56%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Straits Times Stock Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 275
2 Year: 263
4 Year: 239
8 Year: 191
16 Year: 95
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
| 4800 |
| 1800 |
| 2400 |
| |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1200 |
Monthly close for the Straits Times Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
| 4200 |
| 3600 |
| 3000 |
| __________________________________________ |
| Straits Times Stock Index - 5 Year History |
| Straits Times Stock Forecast Dow Jones Multi-Index Charts & Analysis |
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