USA Apparel Inflation Forecast

Commentary 6092 a
APPAREL INFLATION RATE
April, 2012 Data:

The forecast for the Apparel Inflation Rate is in the table at the top of this page.
Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that Apparel Inflation Rates will be roughly
6.68% over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 1.64% which suggests
that the inflation rate for apparel prices in the US for the 12 months ending May,
2013 could easily fall between 8.32% and 5.04%. Links to Forecasts for many
other economic indicators may be found on the left side of this page. The
apparel price index used in this article is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers: Apparel, hereinafter referred as the apparel price index.

Annual Apparel Inflation Rate
Last Month                                       11.6%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9%
Last 5 Years                                     0.7%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.2%
Last 20 Years                                   -0.2%

Annual Apparel Inflation Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months)                      7.5%   (March, 2012)
Low (Last 12 Months)                       0.1%   (May, 2011)
High (Since September, 1941)            23.6%   (May, 1942)
Low (Since September, 1941)            -7.4%   (January, 1950)

The annual Apparel Inflation Rate for the 12 months ended in April, 2012 was
5.94%. That's 1.57% percent lower than the 12 months ended in March, 2012
which inflated at a rate of 7.51%. It is 6.58% percent higher than the 12 months
ended in April, 2011 which inflated at a rate of -0.64%. The fall in inflation rates
from March to April indicates that the short term inflation trend in apparel prices
has been down. If that trend continues, we should see an inflation rate for the
12 months ended in May, 2012 that is close to 4.36%.

The Apparel Inflation Rate one year ago was -0.64%. Over the last year,
inflation in the apparel price index was 5.94%. The average rate over the last
10 years was -0.16%. Higher inflation over the last 12 months compared to the
average inflation over the last 10 years serves as an indicator that the long
term trend in the Apparel Inflation Rate is up. Inflation expectations should be
adjusted accordingly.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Apparel Inflation Rate data
back to September, 1941. The average annual inflation rate in apparel prices
during that period of history was 2.55%. The highest rate was 23.64%. The
lowest rate was -7.42%. The high was attained in the 12 months ended in May
of 1942. The low was achieved in the 12 months ended in January of 1950.
Recent rates experienced in the 12 months ended in April of 2012 are high
relative to the historical 2.55% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Apparel Inflation
Rate. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Apparel Inflation Rate. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart.com's
long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the
financial markets.

The US Government's inflation economics policy attempts to control inflation.
High inflation and negative inflation (deflation) can have damaging effects on
the economy.

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Annual US Inflation Rate for Apparel is plotted monthly in gray (Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers: Apparel). The forecast for the target month is shown in green. Other links related to this
economic indicator are below.

Inflation Rate for All Urban Consumers: Apparel - 5 Year History

USA Apparel Inflation Rate Forecast

Target Month

Forecast

HDTFA

Forecast for the USA Apparel Inflation Rate for the year
ending in the target month indicated based on the
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
Apparel, not seasonally adjusted.

March 2013

6.68%

1.64%

Updated Thursday, May 24, 2012.

USA Apparel Inflation Forecast