Market Commentary  8754
December, 2011 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Prime Interest Rate is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that Prime Interest Rates will be
roughly 3.25% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.60% which suggests
that the January, 2013 rate could easily fall between 3.85% and 2.65%. Links to
Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found on the left side of this
page.




5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the Prime Interest Rate be higher or lower 5 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 33.0% that the Prime Interest Rate will be higher in 5
years. The table shows a probability of 65.0% that the rate will be lower in 5
years. (December, 2016 rate compared to the December, 2011 rate). 53
YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 5 Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for
updates to the 5 Year Forecast for the Prime Interest Rate. The forecast may
change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the
forecasting model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      33%
Down                  65%
Unchanged              2%




5 YEAR FORECAST:  Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the Prime Interest Rate likely to be?

The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of Prime Interest
Rates being ABOVE 4.23% in December, 2016 is 13%. The probability of Prime
Interest Rates being BELOW 4.23% in December, 2016 is 87%. Probabilities for
various other rates are shown as well.

Rate           Above  Below
4.23%            13%    87%
4.06%            17%    83%
3.90%            19%    81%
3.74%            20%    80%
3.58%            22%    78%
3.41%            30%    70%
3.25%            33%    67%
3.09%            39%    61%
2.93%            41%    59%
2.76%            49%    51%
2.60%            55%    45%
2.44%            58%    42%
2.28%            63%    37%



HISTORICAL PRIME INTEREST RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        3.25%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          5.02%
High (Last 12 Months)             3.25% (December, 2011)
Low (Last 12 Months)              3.25% (January, 2011)
High (Since January, 1949)    20.50% (August, 1981)
Low (Since January, 1949)      2.00% (January, 1949)

MONTHLY PRIME INTEREST RATE
Jan,  2011     3.3%
Feb, 2011     3.3%
Mar, 2011     3.3%
Apr,  2011     3.3%
May, 2011     3.3%
Jun,  2011     3.3%
Jul,   2011     3.3%
Aug, 2011     3.3%
Sep, 2011     3.3%
Oct, 2011     3.3%
Nov, 2011     3.3%
Dec, 2011     3.3%
























HIGHLIGHTS
The Prime Interest Rate for December, 2011 averaged 3.25%. That's the same
as the November, 2011 rate, and the same as the December, 2010 rate, The
stability of rates from November to December indicates that the short term rate
trend has been flat. If that market trend continues, we should see an average
daily rate in January, 2012 that is close to 3.25%.

The average Prime Interest Rate for the last 12 months was 3.25%. The
average rate over the last 10 years was 5.02%.  Lower rates over the last 12
months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in Prime Interest Rates is down.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 3.25%. The lowest was
3.25%.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Prime Interest Rate data back
to January, 1949. The average annual rate during that period of history was
6.88%. The highest rate was 20.50%. The lowest rate was 2.00%.  The market
high was attained in August of 1981. The market low was achieved in January
of 1949. Recent rates experienced in December of 2011 are low relative to the
historical 6.88% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for Prime Interest Rates.
For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on Prime Interest Rates. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of the Prime Interest Rate in
numerical format.



























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The average daily rate per month for prime interest rates is shown in gray.  The forecast for the  target
month is shown in green.
Prime Rate - 5 Year History
Prime Rate Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the average daily prime interest
rate during the target month shown at the left.
January 2013
3.25%
.60%
Updated Wednesday, January 11, 2012.
Prime Interest Rate Forecast
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Prime Interest Rate Forecast
Compare US Interest Rates
Historical Prime Interest Rates
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
Year
Percent
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
 2.00
2.07
2.56
3.00
3.17
3.05
3.16
3.77
4.20
3.83
4.48
4.82
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.54
5.63
5.63
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
 6.31
7.95
7.91
5.72
5.25
8.02
10.80
7.86
6.84
6.82
9.06
12.67
15.27
18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93
8.33
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
 8.20
9.32
10.87
10.01
8.46
6.25
6.00
7.14
8.83
8.27
8.44
8.35
7.99
9.23
6.92
4.68
4.12
4.34
6.19
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
 7.96
8.05
5.09
3.25
3.25
3.25
Average annual rates for the Prime Interest Rate is shown in this table: 1949 to present
Current Analysis & Forecast: Prime Interest Rate
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