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Anchorage, AK - House Price Index (HPI) - 30 Year Chart
Anchorage Real Estate Market
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Anchorage, AK single family home prices in
logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Wednesday, January 25, 2012.
Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Anchorage Real Estate Index: 30 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
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Anchorage Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  9308
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Anchorage, Alaska


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      80%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Anchorage housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2012 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Forecast for Anchorage is 80%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 80% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Anchorage is 80% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2012 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Anchorage
Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

The forecast for the trend in the Anchorage housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2014 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Forecast
for Anchorage is 83%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 83% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Anchorage is 83% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2014 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Anchorage
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Anchorage, Alaska


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.27%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  0.3%
Last 5 Years                                     2%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58%
Last 20 Years                                   118%
Decline From All Time High               0.96%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1981        n/a
1982        n/a
1983      10.55%
1984      -0.78%
1985      -5.21%
1986      -5.37%
1987      -22.09%
1988      24.28%
1989      -23.25%
1990      15.12%
1991      11.53%
1992      2.31%
1993      2.18%
1994      2.15%
1995      3.61%
1996      5.08%
1997      3.13%
1998      2.89%
1999      4.12%
2000      1.94%
2001      6.53%
2002      5.71%
2003      8.86%
2004      10.38%
2005      14.21%
2006      6.65%
2007      0.68%
2008      0.93%
2009      -0.71%
2010      0.53%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.27%         Rank: 239 of 381 (37th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  0.3%           Rank: 23 of 381 (94th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              2%              Rank: 110 of 381 (71st Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   58%            Rank: 16 of 381 (96th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            118%          Rank: 57 of 351 (84th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        0.96%

Home Price appreciation rates for Anchorage, AK are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Anchorage appreciated 0.27% in the Last Quarter. At
that rate, the Anchorage Real Estate Market was ranked 239th out of 381
metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Anchorage was in the 37th
percentile. So Anchorage, AK performed better in the Last Quarter than 37% of
the 381 metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Anchorage, Alaska

The all time high in the Anchorage Home Price Index was 203.9 in the 2nd
Quarter, of 2007. The 3rd Quarter, 2011 index value was 202.0. That's a
decline of 1.95 points or 0.96% below the Anchorage Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Anchorage Market is up 58%
over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Anchorage Real Estate Market have
gained 0.29% over the last 12 months.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 0.55 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2011
index value of 201.41, resulting in a 0.27% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Anchorage Market.

The Anchorage Home Price Index has increased for the last 2 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Bismarck, ND, with increases in the last 6 consecutive quarters.
The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index is
Las Vegas, NV, with declines in the last 19 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Anchorage Real Estate
Market was 25% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1991. The
worst annual home appreciation rate in the Anchorage Market was -23% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1990.

The highest home appreciation in the Anchorage Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 49% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
1982. The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the Anchorage
Market was -30% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 1987.

This page provides a long term graph of the Anchorage Home Price Index
(above). The house price chart has been updated through the 3rd Quarter of
2011. For more information about Anchorage Home Prices, look at the links
under that chart. One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation
rates for the Anchorage Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for
appreciation rates in the state of Alaska. Just one glance at
Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and statistics about Anchorage Home
Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

Historical data on the Anchorage Home Price Index is available back to the 4th
Quarter, of 1978. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House
Price Index for the Anchorage Market. The terms House Price Index and Home
Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Anchorage Real Estate Market and hundreds
of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Anchorage, Alaska

The appreciation of Anchorage Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Anchorage Home Prices had a rank of 239,
with appreciation of 0.27%. The top performing real estate market during the
3rd Quarter was Lewiston, ID, with appreciation of 7.64%. The worst market
during that period was Sumter, SC, with appreciation of -5.30%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 0.70%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.72%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Anchorage Home Prices had a rank of 23, with
appreciation during the year of 0.29%. The top performing market during the
last year was Elmira, NY, with appreciation of 6.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -15.4%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -3.41%. The
average appreciation was -4.02%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Anchorage Home Prices
ranked 110, with a total appreciation of 1.5%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 27%. The
worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of -64%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -6%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -10%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Anchorage Home Prices
had a rank of 16, with appreciation during the decade of 58%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%.
The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 26%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 26%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Anchorage Home Prices
had a rank of 57, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of 118%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY, with
appreciation of 214%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Merced,
CA, with appreciation of 6%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 87%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Anchorage Real Estate
Market is available back to the 4th Quarter, of 1978. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Anchorage. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless
specifically stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly
rates of appreciation.)



PART 5: NATIONAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Local economies and home values are influenced in varying degrees by
national economic conditions. Forecasts for some relevant indicators are
included below. The date shown to the right of the forecast represents the
target date of the forecast.   Abbreviations: SSAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate),  Q1 (First Quarter),  Q2 (Second Quarter),  etc.

U. S. Home Values (12 Month Appreciation or Depreciation)  -1.9%  (2012-Q4)
30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate:  3.25%  (December, 2012)
15 Year Mortgage Rate:  2.93%  (December, 2012)
Adjustable Rate Mortgage Rate:  0.00%  (December, 2012)
Housing Starts (SSAR in 1000's):  732  (November, 2012)
Prime Interest Rate:  0.11%  (December, 2012)
US Unemployment Rate (Overall):  8.63%  (November, 2012)
US Inflation or Deflation (-):  3.04%  (November, 2012)
Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel):  $92.4  (November, 2012)
Natural Gas Prices (Dollars Per Million BTU):  $3.37  (November, 2012)
U.S. Dollar Trade Weighted Currency Exchange Index:   105  (December, 2012)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $15.6  (2012-Q2)
GNP (Gross National Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $16.0  (2012-Q2)
Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) in Billions:  $-1704  (2011)
National Debt (Trillions):  $14.6  (2012-Q2)
Fed Funds Rate:  4.03%  (December, 2012)
S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index):  1245  (December, 2012)
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average):  12030  (December, 2012)
U. S. Exports (SSAR in Billions):  $2338  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Imports (SSAR in Billions):  $3042  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Personal Savings Rate:  4.61%  (November, 2012)

































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