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San Francisco, CA - House Price Index (HPI) - 33 Year Chart
San Francisco Real Estate Market
100
1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA single
family home prices in logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Friday,
September 30, 2011. Real estate forecasts, analysis and appreciation rates are provided below.
San Francisco Real Estate Index: 33 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
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San Francisco Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  8842
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: San Francisco, California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      87%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the San Francisco housing market for the
12 months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for San Francisco is 87%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 87% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in San Francisco is 87% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2012 than
they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the San Francisco Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      82%

The forecast for the trend in the San Francisco housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend
Forecast for San Francisco is 82%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 82% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in San Francisco is 82% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2014 than
they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the San Francisco Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: San Francisco, California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         0.60%
Last Year                              -3.8%
Last 5 Years                         -22%
Last 10 Years                       23%
Last 20 Years                       125%
Decline From All Time High   21.53%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1981      0.52%
1982      1.15%
1983      6.60%
1984      5.37%
1985      10.11%
1986      12.00%
1987      18.26%
1988      25.31%
1989      16.67%
1990      -2.69%
1991      -1.61%
1992      -2.23%
1993      -2.06%
1994      -2.85%
1995      1.85%
1996      2.40%
1997      9.96%
1998      11.58%
1999      17.19%
2000      21.90%
2001      5.16%
2002      7.30%
2003      5.78%
2004      16.44%
2005      17.64%
2006      1.06%
2007      -2.44%
2008      -9.91%
2009      -6.15%
2010      -0.68%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.60%         Rank: 210 of 381 (45th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -3.8%          Rank: 202 of 381 (47th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -22%           Rank: 303 of 381 (20th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   23%            Rank: 214 of 381 (43rd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            125%          Rank: 44 of 351 (87th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        21.53%

Home Price appreciation rates for San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA
are shown above for five time periods. For example: San Francisco appreciated
0.60% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the San Francisco Real Estate Market
was ranked 210th out of 381 metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation.
San Francisco was in the 45th percentile. So San Francisco, CA performed
better in the Last Quarter than 45% of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in
Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: San Francisco, California

The data and analysis on this page pertains to San Francisco-San
Mateo-Redwood City, CA, hereinafter referred to as "San Francisco". The all
time high in the San Francisco Home Price Index was 303.2 in the 3rd Quarter,
of 2006. The 3rd Quarter, 2011 index value was 237.9. That's a decline of
65.28 points or 21.53% below the San Francisco Home Price Index all time high.
 The Home Price Index indicates that the San Francisco Market is up 23% over
the last 10 years. Home Prices in the San Francisco Real Estate Market have
lost 3.78% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 411%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 1.43 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2011
index value of 236.48, resulting in a 0.60% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the San
Francisco Market.

The San Francisco Home Price Index increased in the last quarter after falling
in the previous 3 quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases
in the Home Price Index is Bismarck, ND, with increases in the last 6
consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the
Home Price Index is Las Vegas, NV, with declines in the last 19 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the San Francisco Real Estate
Market was 28% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1979. The
worst annual home appreciation rate in the San Francisco Market was -10% in
the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest home appreciation in the San Francisco Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 77% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1989. The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the San
Francisco Market was -19% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
2009.

This page provides a long term graph of the San Francisco Home Price Index
(above). The house price chart has been updated through the 3rd Quarter of
2011. For more information about San Francisco Home Prices, look at the links
under that chart. One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation
rates for the San Francisco Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for
appreciation rates in the state of California. Just one glance at
Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of residential property values. Bookmark this page! Then
Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and statistics about San Francisco
Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

Historical data on the San Francisco Home Price Index is available back to the
3rd Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the
House Price Index for the San Francisco Market. The terms House Price Index
and Home Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing
Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the San Francisco Real Estate Market and
hundreds of other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a
number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: San Francisco, California

The appreciation of San Francisco Home Prices relative to 380 other
metropolitan areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or
more cities. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies
the top and bottom performing markets as well as the average and median
performance for all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this
page pertains to San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA, hereinafter
referred to as "San Francisco".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2011, San Francisco Home Prices had a rank of 210,
with appreciation of 0.60%. The top performing real estate market during the
3rd Quarter was Lewiston, ID, with appreciation of 7.64%. The worst market
during that period was Sumter, SC, with appreciation of -5.30%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 0.70%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.72%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, San Francisco Home Prices had a rank of 202, with
appreciation during the year of -3.78%. The top performing market during the
last year was Elmira, NY, with appreciation of 6.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -15.4%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -3.41%. The
average appreciation was -4.02%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2011, San Francisco Home
Prices ranked 303, with a total appreciation of -21.5%. The top performing real
estate market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of
27%. The worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of
-64%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -6%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -10%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, San Francisco Home
Prices had a rank of 214, with appreciation during the decade of 23%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%.
The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 26%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 26%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, San Francisco Home
Prices had a rank of 44, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of
125%. The top performing real estate market during the period was Casper,
WY, with appreciation of 214%. The worst market during the last 20 years was
Merced, CA, with appreciation of 6%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 87%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the San Francisco Real
Estate Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1975. The chart has been
updated through the 3rd Quarter of 2011. All calculations are based on the
quarterly value of the House Price Index for San Francisco. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless
specifically stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly
rates of appreciation.)



PART 5: NATIONAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Local economies and home values are influenced in varying degrees by
national economic conditions. Forecasts for some relevant indicators are
included below. The date shown to the right of the forecast represents the
target date of the forecast.   Abbreviations: SSAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate),  Q1 (First Quarter),  Q2 (Second Quarter),  etc.

U. S. Home Values (12 Month Appreciation or Depreciation)  -6.9%  (2012-Q3)
30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate:  3.25%  (November, 2012)
15 Year Mortgage Rate:  2.95%  (November, 2012)
Adjustable Rate Mortgage Rate:  0.00%  (November, 2012)
Housing Starts (SSAR in 1000's):  732  (November, 2012)
Prime Interest Rate:  0.11%  (November, 2012)
US Unemployment Rate (Overall):  8.63%  (November, 2012)
US Inflation or Deflation (-):  3.04%  (November, 2012)
Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel):  $92.4  (November, 2012)
Natural Gas Prices (Dollars Per Million BTU):  $3.37  (November, 2012)
U.S. Dollar Trade Weighted Currency Exchange Index:   105  (December, 2012)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $15.6  (2012-Q2)
GNP (Gross National Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $16.0  (2012-Q2)
Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) in Billions:  $-1704  (2011)
National Debt (Trillions):  $14.6  (2012-Q2)
Fed Funds Rate:  4.11%  (November, 2012)
S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index):  1245  (December, 2012)
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average):  12030  (December, 2012)
U. S. Exports (SSAR in Billions):  $2338  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Imports (SSAR in Billions):  $3042  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Personal Savings Rate:  4.61%  (November, 2012)

































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