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Tampa, FL - House Price Index (HPI) - 31 Year Chart
Tampa Real Estate Market
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL single family
home prices in logarithmic scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated September 30,
2011. Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Tampa Real Estate Index: 31 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
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Tampa Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  8877
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Tampa, Florida


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      86%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Tampa housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for Tampa is 86%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 86% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in Tampa is 86% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is
correct, home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2012 than they were in
the 3rd Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Tampa Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      88%

The forecast for the trend in the Tampa housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 3rd Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend Forecast for
Tampa is 88%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 88% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house prices in
Tampa is 88% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2014 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Tampa Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Tampa, Florida


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         1.36%
Last Year                              -7.9%
Last 5 Years                         -40%
Last 10 Years                       19%
Last 20 Years                       83%
Decline From All Time High   40.10%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1981      11.71%
1982      6.41%
1983      6.15%
1984      -2.53%
1985      10.04%
1986      3.89%
1987      2.79%
1988      1.87%
1989      3.44%
1990      -0.86%
1991      3.26%
1992      1.46%
1993      2.71%
1994      -1.39%
1995      4.46%
1996      1.90%
1997      4.64%
1998      5.35%
1999      6.00%
2000      8.88%
2001      10.49%
2002      9.12%
2003      10.22%
2004      17.59%
2005      25.68%
2006      9.40%
2007      -6.97%
2008      -19.84%
2009      -9.79%
2010      -6.36%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.36%         Rank: 129 of 381 (66th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -7.9%          Rank: 327 of 381 (14th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -40%           Rank: 343 of 381 (10th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   19%            Rank: 257 of 381 (32nd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            83%            Rank: 192 of 351 (45th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        40.10%

Home Price appreciation rates for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL are
shown above for five time periods. For example: Tampa appreciated 1.36% in
the Last Quarter. At that rate, the Tampa Real Estate Market was ranked 129th
out of 381 metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Tampa was in the
66th percentile. So Tampa, FL performed better in the Last Quarter than 66%
of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Tampa, Florida

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, hereinafter referred to as "Tampa". The all time
high in the Tampa Home Price Index was 290.2 in the 4th Quarter, of 2006. The
3rd Quarter, 2011 index value was 173.8. That's a decline of 116.35 points or
40.10% below the Tampa Home Price Index all time high.  The Home Price Index
indicates that the Tampa Market is up 19% over the last 10 years. Home Prices
in the Tampa Real Estate Market have lost 7.85% over the last 12 months.
Over the last thirty years, it is up 162%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 2.33 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2011
index value of 171.47, resulting in a 1.36% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the
Tampa Market.

The Tampa Home Price Index increased in the last quarter after falling in the
previous 3 quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the
Home Price Index is Bismarck, ND, with increases in the last 6 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Las Vegas, NV, with declines in the last 19 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Tampa Real Estate Market
was 26% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2006. The worst
annual home appreciation rate in the Tampa Market was -20% in the twelve
months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest home appreciation in the Tampa Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 69% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2006.
The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the Tampa Market was
-34% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph of the Tampa Home Price Index (above).
The house price chart has been updated through the 3rd Quarter of 2011. For
more information about Tampa Home Prices, look at the links under that chart.
One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation rates for the Tampa
Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for appreciation rates in the state
of Florida. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of residential property
values. Bookmark this page! Then Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and
statistics about Tampa Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need
them.

Historical data on the Tampa Home Price Index is available back to the 3rd
Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House
Price Index for the Tampa Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price
Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Tampa Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Tampa, Florida

The appreciation of Tampa Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period. The data and analysis on this page pertains
to Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, hereinafter referred to as "Tampa".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Tampa Home Prices had a rank of 129, with
appreciation of 1.36%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Lewiston, ID, with appreciation of 7.64%. The worst market during
that period was Sumter, SC, with appreciation of -5.30%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 0.70%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.72%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Tampa Home Prices had a rank of 327, with
appreciation during the year of -7.85%. The top performing market during the
last year was Elmira, NY, with appreciation of 6.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -15.4%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -3.41%. The
average appreciation was -4.02%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Tampa Home Prices
ranked 343, with a total appreciation of -39.6%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 27%. The
worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of -64%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -6%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -10%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Tampa Home Prices had
a rank of 257, with appreciation during the decade of 19%. The top performing
market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%. The worst
real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 26%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 26%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Tampa Home Prices had
a rank of 192, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of 83%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY, with
appreciation of 214%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Merced,
CA, with appreciation of 6%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 87%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Tampa Real Estate
Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1977. The chart has been
updated through the 3rd Quarter of 2011. All calculations are based on the
quarterly value of the House Price Index for Tampa. Real estate appreciation
figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless specifically
stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly rates of
appreciation.)



PART 5: NATIONAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Local economies and home values are influenced in varying degrees by
national economic conditions. Forecasts for some relevant indicators are
included below. The date shown to the right of the forecast represents the
target date of the forecast.   Abbreviations: SSAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate),  Q1 (First Quarter),  Q2 (Second Quarter),  etc.

U. S. Home Values (12 Month Appreciation or Depreciation)  -6.9%  (2012-Q3)
30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate:  3.25%  (November, 2012)
15 Year Mortgage Rate:  2.95%  (November, 2012)
Adjustable Rate Mortgage Rate:  0.00%  (November, 2012)
Housing Starts (SSAR in 1000's):  732  (November, 2012)
Prime Interest Rate:  0.11%  (November, 2012)
US Unemployment Rate (Overall):  8.63%  (November, 2012)
US Inflation or Deflation (-):  3.04%  (November, 2012)
Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel):  $92.4  (November, 2012)
Natural Gas Prices (Dollars Per Million BTU):  $3.37  (November, 2012)
U.S. Dollar Trade Weighted Currency Exchange Index:   105  (December, 2012)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $15.6  (2012-Q2)
GNP (Gross National Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $16.0  (2012-Q2)
Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) in Billions:  $-1704  (2011)
National Debt (Trillions):  $14.6  (2012-Q2)
Fed Funds Rate:  4.11%  (November, 2012)
S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index):  1245  (December, 2012)
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average):  12030  (December, 2012)
U. S. Exports (SSAR in Billions):  $2338  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Imports (SSAR in Billions):  $3042  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Personal Savings Rate:  4.61%  (November, 2012)

































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