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Tucson, AZ - House Price Index (HPI) - 31 Year Chart
Tucson Real Estate Market
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1000
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Tucson, AZ single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Updated Friday, September 30, 2011. Real estate
forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation rates are provided below.
Tucson Real Estate Index: 31 Year Chart
Home Values Appreciation Rate - US Cities
10
Tucson Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics
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Commentary  8883
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Tucson, Arizona


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:      DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

Forecast-Chart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or
DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the Tucson housing market for the 12
months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2012 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the
Trend Forecast for Tucson is 83%. In other words, when tested against
historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 83% of the time.
Accordingly, Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house
prices in Tucson is 83% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is
correct, home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2012 than they were in
the 3rd Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the
Tucson Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:          DOWN
Forecast Accuracy:      81%

The forecast for the trend in the Tucson housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 3rd Quarter of 2014 is DOWN. The Accuracy of the Trend Forecast for
Tucson is 81%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 81% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for falling house prices in
Tucson is 81% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2014 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2011. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Tucson Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Tucson, Arizona


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                         -0.90%
Last Year                              -11.9%
Last 5 Years                         -36%
Last 10 Years                       17%
Last 20 Years                       88%
Decline From All Time High   35.85%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1981      -3.55%
1982      -12.57%
1983      23.77%
1984      5.76%
1985      4.84%
1986      3.17%
1987      0.75%
1988      3.01%
1989      1.20%
1990      -0.72%
1991      4.84%
1992      3.17%
1993      5.52%
1994      8.54%
1995      5.98%
1996      2.08%
1997      3.75%
1998      3.74%
1999      2.99%
2000      5.20%
2001      6.78%
2002      6.38%
2003      8.23%
2004      13.59%
2005      29.21%
2006      6.70%
2007      -2.35%
2008      -12.41%
2009      -10.81%
2010      -6.41%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.90%        Rank: 324 of 381 (15th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  -11.9%        Rank: 370 of 381 (2nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -36%           Rank: 335 of 381 (12th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   17%            Rank: 272 of 381 (28th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            88%            Rank: 170 of 351 (51st Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        35.85%

Home Price appreciation rates for Tucson, AZ are shown above for five time
periods. For example: Tucson appreciated -0.90% in the Last Quarter. At that
rate, the Tucson Real Estate Market was ranked 324th out of 381 metropolitan
areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Tucson was in the 15th percentile. So
Tucson, AZ performed better in the Last Quarter than 15% of the 381
metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: Tucson, Arizona

The all time high in the Tucson Home Price Index was 239.8 in the 1st Quarter,
of 2007. The 3rd Quarter, 2011 index value was 153.8. That's a decline of
85.98 points or 35.85% below the Tucson Home Price Index all time high.  The
Home Price Index indicates that the Tucson Market is up 17% over the last 10
years. Home Prices in the Tucson Real Estate Market have lost 11.90% over
the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 120%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 1.39 points lower than the 2nd Quarter, 2011
index value of 155.21, resulting in a 0.90% decline for the 3rd Quarter in the
Tucson Market.

The Tucson Home Price Index has declined for the last 18 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Las Vegas, NV, with declines in the last 19 consecutive quarters. The
current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index is
Bismarck, ND, with increases in the last 6 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual home appreciation rate in the Tucson Real Estate Market
was 37% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1979. The worst
annual home appreciation rate in the Tucson Market was -13% in the twelve
months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest home appreciation in the Tucson Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 70% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1980.
The worst home appreciation over a three year period in the Tucson Market
was -29% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph of the Tucson Home Price Index (above).
The house price chart has been updated through the 3rd Quarter of 2011. For
more information about Tucson Home Prices, look at the links under that chart.
One link opens a long term chart of historical appreciation rates for the Tucson
Real Estate Market. Another opens a forecast for appreciation rates in the state
of Arizona. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart.com's long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of residential property
values. Bookmark this page! Then Forecast-Chart.com's detailed research and
statistics about Tucson Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need
them.

Historical data on the Tucson Home Price Index is available back to the 3rd
Quarter, of 1977. All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House
Price Index for the Tucson Market. The terms House Price Index and Home
Price Index, as used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) House Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Tucson Real Estate Market and hundreds of
other cities. As a result, Home Price data is not available for a number of
months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: Tucson, Arizona

The appreciation of Tucson Home Prices relative to 380 other metropolitan
areas is detailed below. Each metropolitan area contains one or more cities.
Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph identifies the top and
bottom performing markets as well as the average and median performance for
all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Tucson Home Prices had a rank of 324, with
appreciation of -0.90%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Lewiston, ID, with appreciation of 7.64%. The worst market during
that period was Sumter, SC, with appreciation of -5.30%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the 3rd Quarter was 0.70%. The
average appreciation for all markets during the quarter was 0.72%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Tucson Home Prices had a rank of 370, with
appreciation during the year of -11.90%. The top performing market during the
last year was Elmira, NY, with appreciation of 6.1%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Carson City, NV, with appreciation of -15.4%.
The median appreciation for all markets during this period was -3.41%. The
average appreciation was -4.02%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Tucson Home Prices
ranked 335, with a total appreciation of -35.6%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 27%. The
worst market during that period was Merced, CA, with appreciation of -64%.
The median appreciation for all cities during this time period was -6%. The
average appreciation over the 5 years was -10%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Tucson Home Prices
had a rank of 272, with appreciation during the decade of 17%. The top
performing market during the period was Midland, TX, with appreciation of 92%.
The worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Detroit, MI, with
appreciation of -29%.
The median appreciation for all markets during the last 10 years was 26%. The
average appreciation for the cities over that time frame was 26%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2011, Tucson Home Prices
had a rank of 170, with total appreciation over the 20 year period of 88%. The
top performing real estate market during the period was Casper, WY, with
appreciation of 214%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Merced,
CA, with appreciation of 6%.
The median appreciation for all cities during the last 20 years was 87%. The
average appreciation for the markets over that time frame was 89%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Tucson Real Estate
Market is available back to the 3rd Quarter, of 1977. The chart has been
updated through the 3rd Quarter of 2011. All calculations are based on the
quarterly value of the House Price Index for Tucson. Real estate appreciation
figures represent total appreciation over each time period. (Unless specifically
stated, the appreciation figures do not represent annual or quarterly rates of
appreciation.)



PART 5: NATIONAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Local economies and home values are influenced in varying degrees by
national economic conditions. Forecasts for some relevant indicators are
included below. The date shown to the right of the forecast represents the
target date of the forecast.   Abbreviations: SSAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate),  Q1 (First Quarter),  Q2 (Second Quarter),  etc.

U. S. Home Values (12 Month Appreciation or Depreciation)  -6.9%  (2012-Q3)
30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate:  3.25%  (November, 2012)
15 Year Mortgage Rate:  2.95%  (November, 2012)
Adjustable Rate Mortgage Rate:  0.00%  (November, 2012)
Housing Starts (SSAR in 1000's):  732  (November, 2012)
Prime Interest Rate:  0.11%  (November, 2012)
US Unemployment Rate (Overall):  8.63%  (November, 2012)
US Inflation or Deflation (-):  3.04%  (November, 2012)
Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel):  $92.4  (November, 2012)
Natural Gas Prices (Dollars Per Million BTU):  $3.37  (November, 2012)
U.S. Dollar Trade Weighted Currency Exchange Index:   105  (December, 2012)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $15.6  (2012-Q2)
GNP (Gross National Product) SSAR in Trillions:  $16.0  (2012-Q2)
Federal Surplus or Deficit (-) in Billions:  $-1704  (2011)
National Debt (Trillions):  $14.6  (2012-Q2)
Fed Funds Rate:  4.11%  (November, 2012)
S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index):  1245  (December, 2012)
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average):  12030  (December, 2012)
U. S. Exports (SSAR in Billions):  $2338  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Imports (SSAR in Billions):  $3042  (2012-Q2)
U. S. Personal Savings Rate:  4.61%  (November, 2012)

































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