Food Price Inflation Forecast

Commentary 6092 f
FOOD INFLATION RATE
April, 2012 Data:

The forecast for the Food Inflation Rate is in the table at the top of this page.
Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that Food Inflation Rates will be roughly
6.04% over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 4.79% which suggests
that the inflation rate for food prices in the US for the 12 months ending May,
2013 could easily fall between 10.83% and 1.25%. Links to Forecasts for many
other economic indicators may be found on the left side of this page. The food
price index used in this article is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers: Food, hereinafter referred as the food price index.

Annual Food Inflation Rate
Last Month                                       2.3%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5%
Last 5 Years                                     3.2%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8%
Last 20 Years                                   2.6%

Annual Food Inflation Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months)                      4.7%   (November, 2011)
Low (Last 12 Months)                       3.2%   (May, 2011)
High (Since January, 1914)            36.7%   (June, 1917)
Low (Since January, 1914)            -34.3%   (July, 1921)

The annual Food Inflation Rate for the 12 months ended in April, 2012 was
3.50%. That's 0.52% percent lower than the 12 months ended in March, 2012
which inflated at a rate of 4.02%. It is 0.61% percent higher than the 12 months
ended in April, 2011 which inflated at a rate of 2.88%. The fall in inflation rates
from March to April indicates that the short term inflation trend in food prices
has been down. If that trend continues, we should see an inflation rate for the
12 months ended in May, 2012 that is close to 2.98%.

The Food Inflation Rate one year ago was 2.88%. Over the last year, inflation in
the food price index was 3.50%. The average rate over the last 10 years was
2.83%. Higher inflation over the last 12 months compared to the average
inflation over the last 10 years serves as an indicator that the long term trend in
the Food Inflation Rate is up. Inflation expectations should be adjusted
accordingly.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Food Inflation Rate data back
to January, 1914. The average annual inflation rate in food prices during that
period of history was 3.55%. The highest rate was 36.70%. The lowest rate was
-34.35%. The high was attained in the 12 months ended in June of 1917. The
low was achieved in the 12 months ended in July of 1921. Recent rates
experienced in the 12 months ended in April of 2012 are similar to the historical
3.55% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Food Inflation Rate.
For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Food Inflation Rate. Just one glance at Forecast-Chart.com's long
term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the
financial markets.

The US Government's inflation economics policy attempts to control inflation.
High inflation and negative inflation (deflation) can have damaging effects on
the economy.

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Annual US Inflation Rate in Food Prices is plotted monthly in gray (Consumer Price Index for All
Urban Consumers: Food). The forecast for the target month is shown in green. Other links related to
this economic indicator are below.

Inflation Rate for All Urban Consumers: Food - 5 Year History

Food Price Inflation Rate Forecast

Target Month

Forecast

HDTFA

Forecast for the US Food Price Inflation Rate for the
year ending in the target month indicated based on the
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food,
not seasonally adjusted.

May 2013

6.04%

4.79%

Updated Thursday, May 24, 2012.

Food Price Inflation Forecast

Inflation Rate Forecast: Food
Inflation: Food, Energy, Housing, Medical etc.