US Inflation Rate Forecast

Commentary 8378
Part 1: OVERALL INFLATION RATE
December, 2011 Data:

The forecast for the US Inflation Rate is in the table at the top of this page.
Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that US Inflation Rates will be roughly 2.32%
over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.90% which suggests that US
inflation for the 12 months ending January, 2013 could easily fall between
3.22% and 1.41%. Links to Forecasts for many other economic indicators may
be found on the left side of this page.

Annual Inflation Rates
Last Month                                       -3.0%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0%
Last 5 Years                                     2.2%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4%
Last 20 Years                                   2.5%

Annual Inflation Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months)                      3.9%   (September, 2011)
Low (Last 12 Months)                       1.6%   (January, 2011)
High (Since January, 1922)            19.7%   (March, 1947)
Low (Since January, 1922)            -11.1%   (January, 1922)

The annual US Inflation Rate for the 12 months ended in December, 2011 was
2.96%. That's 0.43% percent lower than the 12 months ended in November,
2011 which inflated at a rate of 3.39%. It is 1.47% percent higher than the 12
months ended in December, 2010 which inflated at a rate of 1.50%. The fall in
inflation rates from November to December indicates that the short term
inflation trend has been down. If that trend continues, we should see an inflation
rate for the 12 months ended in January, 2012 that is close to 2.53%.

The US Inflation Rate one year ago was 1.50%. Over the last year it was 2.96%.
The average rate over the last 10 years was 2.43%. Higher inflation over the
last 12 months compared to the average inflation over the last 10 years serves
as an indicator that the long term trend in the US Inflation Rate is up. Inflation
expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers US Inflation Rate data back to
January, 1922. The average annual inflation rate during that period of history
was 2.94%. The highest rate was 19.67%. The lowest rate was -11.05%. The
high was attained in the 12 months ended in March of 1947. The low was
achieved in the 12 months ended in January of 1922. Recent rates experienced
in the 12 months ended in December of 2011 are similar to the historical 2.94%
average.

Part 2: INFLATION RATE BY CATEGORY
December, 2011 Data:

There are many types of inflation that are included in the ANNUAL US
INFLATION RATE. There's Food, Apparel, Education, Energy, Transportation,
Medical Care, Recreation and Housing Inflation. All these are included in the
overall US Inflation rate.

Prices can be rising rapidly in certain inflation categories but actually falling in
others. If you are young and healthy, you may spend more heavily on
education, apparel, recreation or transportation. Senior's spend a greater
portion of their budget on medical care.

Your inflation rate could be much higher than the overall rate!

Falling home values may result in a declining cost of housing. But not for you, if
you already own your own home! Your mortgage payments don't decline just
because the value of your home has fallen.
Housing deflation may lower the overall inflation rate. In that case, inflation for a
homeowner may be much higher than the overall inflation rate!

The key question is this: WHAT IS YOUR INFLATION RATE?

INFLATION BY CATEGORY is shown below:

ANNUAL
RATE*
4.6%    Apparel Inflation
1.7%    Education & Communication Inflation
6.6% Energy Inflation
4.5%   Food and Beverages Inflation
4.7%   Food Inflation
1.9%   Housing Inflation
3.5%    Medical Care Inflation
1.0%   Recreation Inflation
5.2% Transportation Inflation

2.96%. All Items

* Annual inflation rates for the 12 months ended in December, 2011.

FORECASTS & CHARTS FOR EACH INFLATION CATEGORY may be found by
clicking the link titled More Inflation Forecasts: Food, Energy, Housing, Medical
& other categories above. The link is under the inflation chart, near the top of
this page.

HISTORICAL INFLATION
Historical Inflation is shown below for the various inflation categories and many
inflation subcategories as well. Two time periods are covered. Inflation over the
last ten years is shown first. Inflation over the last thirty years is shown next.
Gross rather than annual inflation is shown for the ten and thirty year historical
inflation statistics provided below. Therefore, the percent shown reflects the
governments estimates of the total change in prices for each category over the
entire time period instead of the annual rate of price change during each time
period. For example, the figures below indicate that Medical Care costs are now
394% higher than they were thirty years ago.

INFLATION OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS IS SHOWN BELOW:

-7%          Apparel Inflation
25%         Education & Communication Inflation
90%         Energy Inflation
32%         Food Inflation
31%         Food and Beverages Inflation
24%         Housing Inflation
47%         Medical Care Inflation
8%           Recreation Inflation
39%         Transportation Inflation

26%         Alcoholic Beverage Inflation
24%         Commodity Inflation
28%         Dairy & Related Products Inflation
74%         Education Inflation
83%         Educational Books & Supplies Inflation
32%         Food at Home Inflation
6%           Footwear Inflation
33%         Fruit & Vegetable Inflation
202%       Fuel Oil & Other Fuels Inflation
194%       Gasoline Inflation
88%         Hospital & Related Services Inflation
-3%          Household Furnishings & Operations Inflation
41%         Meat, Poultry, Fish & Egg Inflation
0%          New Vehicle Inflation
-77%        Personal Computer & Peripheral Equipment Inflation
30%         Public Transportation Inflation
31%         Rent of Primary Residence Inflation
96%         Tobacco & Smoking Product Inflation
74%         Tuition, Other School Fees & Child Care
-6%          Used Car & Truck Inflation
65%         Water Sewer & Trash Collection Inflation

28%         Overall Inflation (for all items over the last 10 Years)

INFLATION OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS IS SHOWN BELOW:

Inflation
29%           Apparel Prices
159%         Energy Prices
143%         Food Prices
144%         Food and Beverage Prices
148%         Housing Prices
394%         Medical Care Prices
137%         Transportation Prices

142%         Alcoholic Beverage Prices
93%         Commodity Prices
122%         Dairy Prices & Related Products
531%         Educational Book & Supply Prices
140%         Food at Home Prices
29%           Footwear Prices
195%         Fruit & Vegetable Prices
222%         Fuel Oil & Other Fuel Prices
160%         Gasoline Prices
675%         Hospital Prices & Related Services
31%           Household Furnishings & Operations Prices
138%         Meat, Poultry, Fish & Egg Prices
47%           New Vehicle Prices
191%         Public Transportation Prices
181%         Rent Prices (Primary Residence)
951%         Tobacco Prices & Smoking Product Prices
610%         Tuition Prices & Other School & Child Care Fees
76%         Used Car & Truck Prices

140%         Overall Inflation (for all items over the last 30 Years)

All inflation statistics on this page are based on the price and cost estimates as
estimated by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers as published
by the U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the US Inflation Rate.
For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the US Inflation Rate. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The data table above presents the history of US Inflation Rates in numerical
format.

The US Government's inflation economics policy attempts to control inflation.
High inflation and negative inflation (deflation) can have damaging effects on
the economy.

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Annual US Inflation Rate is plotted monthly in gray (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
All Items). The forecast for the target month is shown in green. Other links related to this economic
indicator are below.

CPI for All Urban Consumers: All Items - 5 Year History

CPI for All Urban Consumers: All Items Forecast

Target Month

Forecast

HDTFA

Forecast for the US Inflation Rate for the year ending in
the target month indicated (Consumer Price Index for
All Urban Consumers: All Items, not seasonally
adjusted.

January 2013

2.3%

.90%

Updated Tuesday, January 31, 2012.

US Inflation Rate Forecast