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Market Commentary  30615
January, 2019 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the U.S. Dollar is in the table at the top of this page.
Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that the exchange rate for the U.S. Dollar will
be roughly 130.60 TWI to the USD. The table shows a HDTFA of 7.07 which
suggests that the February, 2020 currency exchange rate could easily fall
between 137.67 and 123.53 TWI/USD

TWI
The symbol for the Trade Weighted Exchange Index is TWI. The Trade
Weighted Exchange Index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange value
of the U.S. Dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. Trading
Partners published by the Economic Research Division of the Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis. TWI is used as an abbreviation for the Trade Weighted
Exchange Index at Forecast-Chart.com since the formal abbreviation
(TWEXBMTH) is a bit cumbersome. The TWI is useful for evaluating the overall
conversion value of the U.S. Dollar relative to the world's currencies. The TWI
includes the currencies of the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, United
Kingdom, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland,
Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia,
Sweden, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia.





4 YEAR FORECAST
Will the U.S. Dollar be higher or lower 4 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 64% that the U.S. Dollar will be higher in 4 years...
(Higher than the basket of world currencies represented by the TWI as
described above). The table shows a probability of 36% that the U.S. Dollar will
be lower in 4 years (January, 2023 TWI/USD compared to the January, 2019
TWI/USD). 46 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 4 Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for
updates to the 4 Year Forecast for the U.S. Dollar.  The forecast may change
substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the forecasting
model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      64%
Down                  36%

All data and calculations on this page are based on the average daily rate per
calendar month for TWI/USD. Links to Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar relative to
fifteen individual currencies may be found by clicking the Currency Exchange
Forecast link at the top of this page.





HISTORICAL EXCHANGE RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        123.67
Average (Last 10 Years)          109.63
High (Last 12 Months)             128.60   (December, 2018)
Low (Last 12 Months)              117.46   (February, 2018)
High (Since January, 1973)      129.69   (February, 2002)
Low (Since January, 1973)       30.64   (July, 1973)





HIGHLIGHTS
The U.S. Dollar exchange rate for January, 2019 averaged 126.80 TWI to USD.
That's 179.6 basis points lower than the December, 2018 rate of 128.60, and
958 basis points higher than the January, 2018 rate of 117.22.  The fall in the
TWI/USD exchange rate from December to January provides evidence that the
short term trend in TWI/USD is down. In other words, a weakening of the US
Dollar against the TWI in the short term. If that trend continues in the world
currency market, we should see an average daily rate in February, 2019 that is
close to 125.00.

The average U.S. Dollar conversion rate over the last 12 months was 123.67.
The average rate over the last 10 years was 109.63.  A higher TWIs to U.S.
Dollars exchange rate over the last 12 months compared to the average rates
over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that the long term trend in TWI/USD
is up (strengthening US Dollar against the TWI).

The highest currency rate for TWI/USD over the last 12 months was 128.60.
The lowest was 117.46. The market high was attained in December, 2018. The
market low was achieved in February, 2018.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the TWI data back to January,
1973. The average exchange value during that period of history was 83.61
TWI/USD. The highest rate was 129.69. The lowest was 30.64.  The market
high was attained in February, of 2002. The market low was achieved in July of
1973. Recent rates experienced in January of 2019 are high relative to the
historical 83.61 average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the U.S. Dollar. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the TWI.
Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the
historical trends of the financial markets. The table above presents additional
historical information on the TWI. Rate data is presented on an annual basis.









                                                                                           











Source of Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US),
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad [TWEXBMTH], retrieved from FRED,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TWEXBMTH

SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.






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The currency exchange value of the U.S. Dollar relative to the Trade Weighted Exchange Index is shown
in gray (average daily rate per calendar month). The
Trade Weighted Exchange Index is a weighted
average of the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. Trading partners. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. If the line in the chart is falling (left to right), the US Dollar has weakened,
causing...
U.S. Dollar Currency Exchange Rate - 5 Year History
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
90
Trade Weighted Exchange Index Forecast
Recent Currency Exchange Rates
Historical U.S. Dollar Conversion Rate Index
Year
Index
Year
Index
Year
Index
Year
Index
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
31.70
32.58
33.68
35.83
36.88
35.09
35.36
36.35
40.34
46.83
52.81
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
60.11
67.16
62.35
60.43
60.92
66.90
71.41
74.35
76.91
83.78
90.87
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
92.65
97.46
104.43
115.89
116.04
119.45
125.93
126.68
119.11
113.63
110.72
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
108.53
103.40
99.83
105.88
101.97
97.29
99.82
101.12
104.15
117.39
122.76
122.25
122.88
Average annual currency exchange rate for the U.S. Dollar according to the Trade
Weighted Exchange Index  is shown in this table: 1973 to present.
Forecast & Current Analysis: U.S. Dollar (USD)
1/14
1/2015
1/2016
1/2017
1/2018
1/2019
1/2020
1/21
U.S. Dollar Currency Exchange Rate Forecast
   
Target Month:
Forecast:
HDTFA:
February,2020
130.60
7.07
 
Currency exchange rate forecast for the value of the U.S. Dollar, relative
to the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. Trading partners for
the target month indicated,  shown in
TWI per  U.S. Dollar.
See commentary below.