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Market Commentary 30771
February, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 10 Year Treasury Interest Rate is in the table at
the top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 10 Year US T-Note
Yields will be roughly 2.73% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.42%
which suggests that the March, 2020 rate could easily fall between 3.16% and
2.31%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking
INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.
5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield be higher or lower 5 years from now?
Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 12.1% that the 10 Year Treasury Interest Rate will
be higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 87.9% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (February, 2024 rate compared to the February, 2019 rate).
56 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 5 Year Forecast. Check this page each month for
updates to the 5 Year Forecast for the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield. The
forecast may change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators
used in the forecasting model.
Forecast Probability
Up 12.1%
Down 87.9%
Unchanged 0%
5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 10 Year Treasury Rate likely to be?
The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 10 Year
Treasury Interest Rates being ABOVE 3.22% in February, 2024 is 6%. The
probability of 10 Year US T-Note Yields being BELOW 3.22% in February, 2024
is 94%. Probabilities for various other rates are shown as well.
Rate Above Below
3.22% 6% 94%
3.08% 7% 93%
2.95% 8% 92%
2.81% 10% 90%
2.68% 12% 88%
2.55% 19% 81%
2.41% 28% 72%
2.28% 39% 61%
2.14% 51% 49%
2.01% 62% 38%
1.88% 72% 28%
HISTORICAL 10 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Average (Last 12 Months) 2.91%.
Average (Last 10 Years) 2.52%
High (Last 12 Months) 3.15% (October, 2018)
Low (Last 12 Months) 2.68% (February, 2019)
High (Since April, 1953) 15.32% (September, 1981)
Low (Since April, 1953) 1.50% (July, 2016)
MONTHLY 10 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Mar, 2018 2.84%
Apr, 2018 2.87%
May, 2018 2.98%
Jun, 2018 2.91%
Jul, 2018 2.89%
Aug, 2018 2.89%
Sep, 2018 3.00%
Oct, 2018 3.15%
Nov, 2018 3.12%
Dec, 2018 2.83%
Jan, 2019 2.71%
Feb, 2019 2.68%
HIGHLIGHTS
The 10 Year Treasury Yield for February, 2019 averaged 2.68%. That's 3 basis
points lower than the January, 2019 rate of 2.71%, and 18 basis points lower
than the February, 2018 rate of 2.86%. The fall in rates from January to
February indicates that the short term rate trend has been down. If that market
trend continues, we should see an average daily rate in March, 2019 that is
close to 2.65%.
The average 10 Year Treasury Rate for the last 12 months was 2.91%. The
average rate over the last 10 years was 2.52%. Higher rates over the last 12
months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in 10 Year Treasury Interest Rates is up.
The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 3.15%. The lowest was
2.68%. The high annual rate was attained in October, 2018. The market low
was achieved in February, 2019.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 10 Year Treasury Rate data
back to April, 1953. The average annual rate during that period of history was
5.81%. The highest rate was 15.32%. The lowest rate was 1.50%. The market
high was attained in September of 1981. The market low was achieved in July of
2016. Recent rates experienced in February of 2019 are low relative to the
historical 5.81% average.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 10 Year Treasury
Interest Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five
year chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest
term graph on 10 Year US T-Note Yields. Just one glance at our long term
charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The data table above presents the history of the 10 Year Treasury
Note Yield in numerical format.
Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US),
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate [GS10], retrieved from FRED,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS10
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
February, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 10 Year Treasury Interest Rate is in the table at
the top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 10 Year US T-Note
Yields will be roughly 2.73% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.42%
which suggests that the March, 2020 rate could easily fall between 3.16% and
2.31%. Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found by clicking
INTEREST RATE FORECAST at the top of this page.
5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield be higher or lower 5 years from now?
Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 12.1% that the 10 Year Treasury Interest Rate will
be higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 87.9% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (February, 2024 rate compared to the February, 2019 rate).
56 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 5 Year Forecast. Check this page each month for
updates to the 5 Year Forecast for the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield. The
forecast may change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators
used in the forecasting model.
Forecast Probability
Up 12.1%
Down 87.9%
Unchanged 0%
5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 10 Year Treasury Rate likely to be?
The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 10 Year
Treasury Interest Rates being ABOVE 3.22% in February, 2024 is 6%. The
probability of 10 Year US T-Note Yields being BELOW 3.22% in February, 2024
is 94%. Probabilities for various other rates are shown as well.
Rate Above Below
3.22% 6% 94%
3.08% 7% 93%
2.95% 8% 92%
2.81% 10% 90%
2.68% 12% 88%
2.55% 19% 81%
2.41% 28% 72%
2.28% 39% 61%
2.14% 51% 49%
2.01% 62% 38%
1.88% 72% 28%
HISTORICAL 10 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Average (Last 12 Months) 2.91%.
Average (Last 10 Years) 2.52%
High (Last 12 Months) 3.15% (October, 2018)
Low (Last 12 Months) 2.68% (February, 2019)
High (Since April, 1953) 15.32% (September, 1981)
Low (Since April, 1953) 1.50% (July, 2016)
MONTHLY 10 YEAR TREASURY RATE
Mar, 2018 2.84%
Apr, 2018 2.87%
May, 2018 2.98%
Jun, 2018 2.91%
Jul, 2018 2.89%
Aug, 2018 2.89%
Sep, 2018 3.00%
Oct, 2018 3.15%
Nov, 2018 3.12%
Dec, 2018 2.83%
Jan, 2019 2.71%
Feb, 2019 2.68%
HIGHLIGHTS
The 10 Year Treasury Yield for February, 2019 averaged 2.68%. That's 3 basis
points lower than the January, 2019 rate of 2.71%, and 18 basis points lower
than the February, 2018 rate of 2.86%. The fall in rates from January to
February indicates that the short term rate trend has been down. If that market
trend continues, we should see an average daily rate in March, 2019 that is
close to 2.65%.
The average 10 Year Treasury Rate for the last 12 months was 2.91%. The
average rate over the last 10 years was 2.52%. Higher rates over the last 12
months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in 10 Year Treasury Interest Rates is up.
The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 3.15%. The lowest was
2.68%. The high annual rate was attained in October, 2018. The market low
was achieved in February, 2019.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 10 Year Treasury Rate data
back to April, 1953. The average annual rate during that period of history was
5.81%. The highest rate was 15.32%. The lowest rate was 1.50%. The market
high was attained in September of 1981. The market low was achieved in July of
2016. Recent rates experienced in February of 2019 are low relative to the
historical 5.81% average.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 10 Year Treasury
Interest Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five
year chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest
term graph on 10 Year US T-Note Yields. Just one glance at our long term
charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The data table above presents the history of the 10 Year Treasury
Note Yield in numerical format.
Data Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US),
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate [GS10], retrieved from FRED,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS10
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
4%
5%
Average daily rate per month for 10 year treasury rates is shown in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green.
month is shown in green.
| 10 Year Treasury Rate (T Note Yield) - 5 Year History |
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| 10 Year Treasury Rate Forecast Compare US Interest Rates |
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Current Analysis & Forecast: 10 Year Treasury Note Yield
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