New Housing Starts Forecast

Commentary 8382
December, 2011 Data:

The forecast for Housing Starts is in the table at the top of this page. All
Housing Starts Data presented herein refers to the Seasonally Adjusted Annual
Rate. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that Housing Starts will be roughly 821
thousand units next January. The table shows a HDTFA of 197 thousand units
which suggests that housing starts in January, 2013 could easily fall between
1018 thousand units and 624 thousand units. Links to Forecasts for many other
economic indicators may be found on the left side of this page.

Annual Housing Starts
Last Month                                         657
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 607
Last 5 Years                                      797
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1339
Last 20 Years                                  1404

Housing Starts (Annual Rates): Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months)                       685   (November, 2011)
Low (Last 12 Months)                        518   (February, 2011)
High (Since January, 1959)             2494   (January, 1972)
Low (Since January, 1959)                478   (April, 2009)

Housing Starts for December, 2011 were 657 thousand units. That's 28
thousand units lower than the November, 2011 level which was 685 thousand
units. It is 131 thousand units higher than the December, 2010 level of 526
thousand units. The fall in Housing Starts from November to December
indicates that the short term Housing Starts trend has been down. If that trend
continues, we should see a housing starts level in January, 2012 that is close to
629 thousand units.

Over the last year housing starts have averaged 607 thousand units
(seasonally adjusted annual rate). The average level over the last 10 years was
1339 thousand units. Lower Housing Starts over the last 12 months compared
to the average levels over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that the long
term trend in the Housing Starts is down. Expectations for housing starts should
be adjusted accordingly.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers Housing Starts data back to
January, 1959. Average housing starts during that period of history was 1480
thousand units per month. The highest level was 2494 thousand units. The
lowest oil level was 478 thousand units. The high was attained in January, of
1972. The low was achieved in April of 2009.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for Housing Starts. For links
to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above). One
link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on Housing
Starts. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide tremendous insight
into the historical trends of the financial markets. The data table above
presents the history of US Housing Starts in numerical format.

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Monthly New US Privately Owned Housing Starts is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month
is shown in green (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Other links related to this economic indicator
are below.

New US Privately Owned Housing Starts - 5 Year History

New US Privately Owned Housing Starts Forecast

Target Month

Forecast

HDTFA

Forecast for New US Privately Owned Housing
Starts for the target month indicated.
Measurement is in Thousands of Units
(seasonally adjusted annual rate).

January 2013

821

197

Updated Tuesday, January 31, 2012.

New Housing Starts Forecast

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