6 Month CD Rate Forecast

Market Commentary 8757
December, 2011 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 6 Month CD Rate is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 6 Month CD Rates will be roughly
0.68% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.22% which suggests that the
January, 2013 rate could easily fall between 0.89% and 0.46%. Links to
Forecasts for many other interest rates may be found on the left side of this
page.

5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 6 Month CD Rate be higher or lower 5 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 34.5% that the 6 Month CD Rate will be higher in 5
years. The table shows a probability of 65.5% that the rate will be lower in 5
years. (December, 2016 rate compared to the December, 2011 rate). 38
YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 5 Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for
updates to the 5 Year Forecast for the 6 Month CD Rate. The forecast may
change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators used in the
forecasting model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      34.5%
Down                  65.5%
Unchanged              0%

5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 6 Month CD Rate likely to be?

The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 6 Month CD
Rates being ABOVE .87% in December, 2016 is 22%. The probability of 6
Month CD Rates being BELOW .87% in December, 2016 is 78%. Probabilities
for various other rates are shown as well.

Rate           Above Below
.87%            22%    78%
.84%            23%    77%
.80%            24%    76%
.77%            27%    73%
.74%            29%    71%
.70%            31%    69%
.67%            34%    66%
.64%            37%    63%
.60%            39%    61%
.57%            41%    59%
.54%            43%    57%
.50%            44%    56%
.47%            52%    48%

HISTORICAL 6 MONTH CD RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        0.42%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          2.38%
High (Last 12 Months)             0.67% (December, 2011)
Low (Last 12 Months)              0.30% (May, 2011)
High (Since June, 1964)    17.98% (August, 1981)
Low (Since June, 1964)      0.29% (January, 2010)

MONTHLY 6 MONTH CD RATE
Jan, 2011     0.38%
Feb, 2011     0.38%
Mar, 2011     0.37%
Apr, 2011     0.32%
May, 2011     0.30%
Jun, 2011     0.32%
Jul,   2011     0.35%
Aug, 2011     0.42%
Sep, 2011     0.47%
Oct, 2011     0.5%
Nov, 2011     0.6%
Dec, 2011     0.7%

HIGHLIGHTS
The 6 Month Cd Rate for December, 2011 averaged 0.67%. That's 9 basis
points higher than the November, 2011 rate of 0.58%, and 26 basis points
higher than the December, 2010 rate of 0.41%. The rise in rates from
November to December indicates that the short term rate trend has been up. If
that market trend continues, we should see an average daily rate in January,
2012 that is close to 0.76%.

The average 6 Month CD Rate for the last 12 months was 0.42%. The average
rate over the last 10 years was 2.38%. Lower rates over the last 12 months
compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that
the long term rate trend in 6 Month CD Rates is down.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 0.67%. The lowest was
0.30%. The high annual rate was attained in December, 2011. The market low
was achieved in May, 2011.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 6 Month CD Rate data back to
June, 1964. The average annual rate during that period of history was 6.19%.
The highest rate was 17.98%. The lowest rate was 0.29%. The market high
was attained in August of 1981. The market low was achieved in January of
2010. Recent rates experienced in December of 2011 are low relative to the
historical 6.19% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 6 Month CD Rates. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on 6
Month CD Rates. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The data
table above presents the history of the 6 Month CD Rate in numerical format.

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