30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate Forecast

Market Commentary 8755
December, 2011 Data:

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate is in the table at
the top of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that 30 Year Mortgage
Interest Rates will be roughly 4.00% in one year. The table shows a HDTFA of
0.42% which suggests that the January, 2013 rate could easily fall between
4.42% and 3.58%. Links to Forecasts for many other interest rates may be
found on the left side of this page.

5 YEAR FORECAST
Will the 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate be higher or lower 5 years from now?

Look at the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 10.2% that the 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate will
be higher in 5 years. The table shows a probability of 89.4% that the rate will be
lower in 5 years. (December, 2016 rate compared to the December, 2011 rate).
38 YEARS of historical data were use to calculate probabilities for
Forecast-Chart.com's 5 Year Forecast.   Check this page each month for
updates to the 5 Year Forecast for the 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate. The
forecast may change substantially as a result of movement in the indicators
used in the forecasting model.

Forecast          Probability
Up                      10.2%
Down                  89.4%
Unchanged              0.4%

5 YEAR FORECAST: Various Rates
In 5 years, how high or how low is the 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate likely to
be?

The first line of the table below indicates that the probability of 30 Year
Mortgage Interest Rates being ABOVE 3.96% in December, 2016 is 10%. The
probability of 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rates being BELOW 3.96% in
December, 2016 is 90%. Probabilities for various other rates are shown as well.

Rate           Above Below
3.96%            10%    90%
3.76%            17%    83%
3.56%            33%    67%
3.37%            57%    43%
3.17%            70%    30%
2.97%            81%    19%








HISTORICAL 30 YEAR MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE
Average (Last 12 Months)        4.46%.
Average (Last 10 Years)          5.71%
High (Last 12 Months)             4.95% (February, 2011)
Low (Last 12 Months)              3.96% (December, 2011)
High (Since January, 1964)    18.45% (October, 1981)
Low (Since January, 1964)      3.96% (December, 2011)

MONTHLY 30 YEAR MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE
Jan, 2011     4.8%
Feb, 2011     5.0%
Mar, 2011     4.8%
Apr, 2011     4.8%
May, 2011     4.6%
Jun, 2011     4.5%
Jul,   2011     4.6%
Aug, 2011     4.3%
Sep, 2011     4.1%
Oct, 2011     4.1%
Nov, 2011     4.0%
Dec, 2011     4.0%

HIGHLIGHTS
The 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate for December, 2011 averaged 3.96%.
That's 3 basis points lower than the November, 2011 rate of 3.99%, and 75
basis points lower than the December, 2010 rate of 4.71%. The minor
movement in rates from November to December indicates that the short term
rate trend has been relatively flat. If that market trend continues, we should see
an average daily rate in January, 2012 that is close to 3.93%.

The average 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate for the last 12 months was 4.46%.
The average rate over the last 10 years was 5.71%. Lower rates over the last
12 months compared to the average rates over the last 10 years serve as an
indicator that the long term rate trend in 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rates is
down.

The highest annual rate over the last 12 months was 4.95%. The lowest was
3.96%. The high annual rate was attained in February, 2011. The market low
was achieved in December, 2011.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers 30 Year Mortgage Interest
Rate data back to January, 1964. The average annual rate during that period
of history was 8.51%. The highest rate was 18.45%. The lowest rate was
3.96%. The market high was attained in October of 1981. The market low was
achieved in December of 2011. Recent rates experienced in December of 2011
are low relative to the historical 8.51% average.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for 30 Year Mortgage
Interest Rates. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five
year chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest
term graph on 30 Year Mortgage Interest Rates. Just one glance at our long
term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the
financial markets. The data table above presents the history of the 30 Year
Mortgage Interest Rate in numerical format.

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Average daily rate per month for conventional 30 year fixed mortgage rates is shown in gray. Source:
Freddie Mac. The forecast for the target month is shown in green.

30 Year Mortgage Rates - 5 Year History