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Commentary 31925
August, 2019 Data:
The forecast for the US unemployment rate is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that National Unemployment Rates will
be roughly 3.62% over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.53% which
suggests that US unemployment for the 12 months ending September, 2020
could easily fall between 4.15% and 3.09%. Links to Forecasts for many other
economic indicators may be found by clicking the Economic Forecast link at the
top of this page.
Annual Unemployment Rates
Last Month 3.8%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8%
Last 5 Years 4.6%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4%
Last 20 Years 5.9%
Historical Unemployment Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months) 4.4% (January, 2019)
Low (Last 12 Months) 3.3% (April, 2019)
High (Since January, 1948) 10.8% (November, 1982)
Low (Since January, 1948) 2.5% (May, 1953)
The annual US unemployment rate in August, 2019 was 3.80%. That's 0.20%
percent lower than the July, 2019 unemployment rate of 4.00%. It is 0.10%
percent lower than the August, 2018 unemployment rate of 3.90%. The fall in
unemployment rates from July to August indicates that the short term
unemployment rate trend has been down. If that trend continues, we should see
an unemployment rate in September, 2019 that is close to 3.60%.
The National Unemployment Rate one year ago was 3.90%. The average rate
over the last year was 3.75%. The average rate over the last 10 years was
6.45%. Lower rates over the last 12 months compared to the average rates
over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that the long term trend in the US
unemployment rate is down. Unemployment rate expectations should be
adjusted accordingly.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers US unemployment rate data
back to January, 1948. The average annual unemployment rate during that
period of history was 5.75%. The highest rate was 10.80%. The lowest rate was
2.50%. The high was attained in November of 1982. The low was achieved in
May of 1953. Recent rates experienced in August of 2019 are low relative to the
historical 5.75% average.
This page provides a five year chart and a twelve month forecast for US
unemployment rates. For links to more information on US unemployment rates,
look at the links under the five year chart (above). One link opens a ten year
chart. Another opens a sixty year graph of the National Unemployment Rate.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY AGE AND SEX
(Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Unemployment Rates: Males 20 Years & Over
2018-09 3.2%
2018-10 3.2%
2018-11 3.1%
2018-12 3.7%
2019-01 4.4%
2019-02 4.0%
2019-03 4.0%
2019-04 3.2%
2019-05 3.1%
2019-06 3.2%
2019-07 3.2%
2019-08 3.2%
Unemployment Rates: Females 20 Years & Over
2018-09 3.3%
2018-10 3.3%
2018-11 3.2%
2018-12 3.2%
2019-01 3.7%
2019-02 3.4%
2019-03 3.3%
2019-04 2.8%
2019-05 3.0%
2019-06 3.5%
2019-07 3.9%
2019-08 3.8%
Unemployment Rates: Teenagers (16-19)
2018-09 12.3%
2018-10 11.6%
2018-11 12.0%
2018-12 11.0%
2019-01 13.7%
2019-02 14.0%
2019-03 12.1%
2019-04 11.9%
2019-05 12.8%
2019-06 15.0%
2019-07 13.3%
2019-08 12.1%
Unemployment Rates: Total U. S.
2018-09 3.6%
2018-10 3.5%
2018-11 3.5%
2018-12 3.7%
2019-01 4.4%
2019-02 4.1%
2019-03 3.9%
2019-04 3.3%
2019-05 3.4%
2019-06 3.8%
2019-07 4.0%
2019-08 3.8%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: States in ALPHABETICAL ORDER
July, 2019, Seasonally Adjusted
3.3% Alabama
6.3% Alaska
4.9% Arizona
3.4% Arkansas
4.1% California
2.9% Colorado
3.6% Connecticut
3.3% Delaware
5.6% District Of Columbia
3.3% Florida
3.6% Georgia
2.8% Hawaii
2.9% Idaho
4.2% Illinois
3.4% Indiana
2.5% Iowa
3.3% Kansas
4.3% Kentucky
4.3% Louisiana
3.0% Maine
3.8% Maryland
2.9% Massachusetts
4.3% Michigan
3.4% Minnesota
5.1% Mississippi
3.3% Missouri
3.4% Montana
3.1% Nebraska
4.1% Nevada
2.5% New Hampshire
3.3% New Jersey
4.9% New Mexico
4.0% New York
4.2% North Carolina
2.4% North Dakota
4.0% Ohio
3.2% Oklahoma
4.0% Oregon
3.9% Pennsylvania
3.5% Rhode Island
3.4% South Carolina
2.9% South Dakota
3.5% Tennessee
3.4% Texas
2.8% Utah
2.1% Vermont
2.9% Virginia
4.6% Washington
4.7% West Virginia
3.0% Wisconsin
3.6% Wyoming
STATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: Lowest to Highest
July, 2019, Seasonally Adjusted
2.1% Vermont
2.4% North Dakota
2.5% Iowa
2.5% New Hampshire
2.8% Hawaii
2.8% Utah
2.9% Colorado
2.9% Idaho
2.9% Massachusetts
2.9% South Dakota
2.9% Virginia
3.0% Maine
3.0% Wisconsin
3.1% Nebraska
3.2% Oklahoma
3.3% Alabama
3.3% Delaware
3.3% Florida
3.3% Kansas
3.3% Missouri
3.3% New Jersey
3.4% Arkansas
3.4% Indiana
3.4% Minnesota
3.4% Montana
3.4% South Carolina
3.4% Texas
3.5% Rhode Island
3.5% Tennessee
3.6% Connecticut
3.6% Georgia
3.6% Wyoming
3.8% Maryland
3.9% Pennsylvania
4.0% New York
4.0% Ohio
4.0% Oregon
4.1% California
4.1% Nevada
4.2% Illinois
4.2% North Carolina
4.3% Kentucky
4.3% Louisiana
4.3% Michigan
4.6% Washington
4.7% West Virginia
4.9% Arizona
4.9% New Mexico
5.1% Mississippi
5.6% District Of Columbia
6.3% Alaska
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
______________________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
August, 2019 Data:
The forecast for the US unemployment rate is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting that National Unemployment Rates will
be roughly 3.62% over the next year. The table shows a HDTFA of 0.53% which
suggests that US unemployment for the 12 months ending September, 2020
could easily fall between 4.15% and 3.09%. Links to Forecasts for many other
economic indicators may be found by clicking the Economic Forecast link at the
top of this page.
Annual Unemployment Rates
Last Month 3.8%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8%
Last 5 Years 4.6%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4%
Last 20 Years 5.9%
Historical Unemployment Rate: Highs & Lows
High (Last 12 Months) 4.4% (January, 2019)
Low (Last 12 Months) 3.3% (April, 2019)
High (Since January, 1948) 10.8% (November, 1982)
Low (Since January, 1948) 2.5% (May, 1953)
The annual US unemployment rate in August, 2019 was 3.80%. That's 0.20%
percent lower than the July, 2019 unemployment rate of 4.00%. It is 0.10%
percent lower than the August, 2018 unemployment rate of 3.90%. The fall in
unemployment rates from July to August indicates that the short term
unemployment rate trend has been down. If that trend continues, we should see
an unemployment rate in September, 2019 that is close to 3.60%.
The National Unemployment Rate one year ago was 3.90%. The average rate
over the last year was 3.75%. The average rate over the last 10 years was
6.45%. Lower rates over the last 12 months compared to the average rates
over the last 10 years serve as an indicator that the long term trend in the US
unemployment rate is down. Unemployment rate expectations should be
adjusted accordingly.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers US unemployment rate data
back to January, 1948. The average annual unemployment rate during that
period of history was 5.75%. The highest rate was 10.80%. The lowest rate was
2.50%. The high was attained in November of 1982. The low was achieved in
May of 1953. Recent rates experienced in August of 2019 are low relative to the
historical 5.75% average.
This page provides a five year chart and a twelve month forecast for US
unemployment rates. For links to more information on US unemployment rates,
look at the links under the five year chart (above). One link opens a ten year
chart. Another opens a sixty year graph of the National Unemployment Rate.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY AGE AND SEX
(Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Unemployment Rates: Males 20 Years & Over
2018-09 3.2%
2018-10 3.2%
2018-11 3.1%
2018-12 3.7%
2019-01 4.4%
2019-02 4.0%
2019-03 4.0%
2019-04 3.2%
2019-05 3.1%
2019-06 3.2%
2019-07 3.2%
2019-08 3.2%
Unemployment Rates: Females 20 Years & Over
2018-09 3.3%
2018-10 3.3%
2018-11 3.2%
2018-12 3.2%
2019-01 3.7%
2019-02 3.4%
2019-03 3.3%
2019-04 2.8%
2019-05 3.0%
2019-06 3.5%
2019-07 3.9%
2019-08 3.8%
Unemployment Rates: Teenagers (16-19)
2018-09 12.3%
2018-10 11.6%
2018-11 12.0%
2018-12 11.0%
2019-01 13.7%
2019-02 14.0%
2019-03 12.1%
2019-04 11.9%
2019-05 12.8%
2019-06 15.0%
2019-07 13.3%
2019-08 12.1%
Unemployment Rates: Total U. S.
2018-09 3.6%
2018-10 3.5%
2018-11 3.5%
2018-12 3.7%
2019-01 4.4%
2019-02 4.1%
2019-03 3.9%
2019-04 3.3%
2019-05 3.4%
2019-06 3.8%
2019-07 4.0%
2019-08 3.8%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: States in ALPHABETICAL ORDER
July, 2019, Seasonally Adjusted
3.3% Alabama
6.3% Alaska
4.9% Arizona
3.4% Arkansas
4.1% California
2.9% Colorado
3.6% Connecticut
3.3% Delaware
5.6% District Of Columbia
3.3% Florida
3.6% Georgia
2.8% Hawaii
2.9% Idaho
4.2% Illinois
3.4% Indiana
2.5% Iowa
3.3% Kansas
4.3% Kentucky
4.3% Louisiana
3.0% Maine
3.8% Maryland
2.9% Massachusetts
4.3% Michigan
3.4% Minnesota
5.1% Mississippi
3.3% Missouri
3.4% Montana
3.1% Nebraska
4.1% Nevada
2.5% New Hampshire
3.3% New Jersey
4.9% New Mexico
4.0% New York
4.2% North Carolina
2.4% North Dakota
4.0% Ohio
3.2% Oklahoma
4.0% Oregon
3.9% Pennsylvania
3.5% Rhode Island
3.4% South Carolina
2.9% South Dakota
3.5% Tennessee
3.4% Texas
2.8% Utah
2.1% Vermont
2.9% Virginia
4.6% Washington
4.7% West Virginia
3.0% Wisconsin
3.6% Wyoming
STATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: Lowest to Highest
July, 2019, Seasonally Adjusted
2.1% Vermont
2.4% North Dakota
2.5% Iowa
2.5% New Hampshire
2.8% Hawaii
2.8% Utah
2.9% Colorado
2.9% Idaho
2.9% Massachusetts
2.9% South Dakota
2.9% Virginia
3.0% Maine
3.0% Wisconsin
3.1% Nebraska
3.2% Oklahoma
3.3% Alabama
3.3% Delaware
3.3% Florida
3.3% Kansas
3.3% Missouri
3.3% New Jersey
3.4% Arkansas
3.4% Indiana
3.4% Minnesota
3.4% Montana
3.4% South Carolina
3.4% Texas
3.5% Rhode Island
3.5% Tennessee
3.6% Connecticut
3.6% Georgia
3.6% Wyoming
3.8% Maryland
3.9% Pennsylvania
4.0% New York
4.0% Ohio
4.0% Oregon
4.1% California
4.1% Nevada
4.2% Illinois
4.2% North Carolina
4.3% Kentucky
4.3% Louisiana
4.3% Michigan
4.6% Washington
4.7% West Virginia
4.9% Arizona
4.9% New Mexico
5.1% Mississippi
5.6% District Of Columbia
6.3% Alaska
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
______________________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
Monthly US National Unemployment rate is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is shown
in green. Other links related to this economic indicator are below.
in green. Other links related to this economic indicator are below.
| US National Unemployment rate - 5 Year History |
| 4% |
| 5% |
| 8% |
US Unemployment Rate Forecast
| 2% |
| 1% |
| 7% |
| 6% |
| 0% |
| 3% |
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Current Unemployment Rate Forecast:
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Are You Unemployed?
A note of encouragement from the Editor:
After my son turned sixteen, I told him it was time
to get a job. It was summer and jobs were hard
to find. The unemployment rate was about 6%
at the time. But the unemployment rate for
teenagers was 19.5%! The summer is the
hardest time of the year for a teenager to find
a job. The outlook for a first time summer job
was dismal.
On a Monday, I told my 16 year old to apply
for ten jobs every day until he got one.
He said he couldn't come up with even the first ten
places to apply.
He applied for ten jobs per day. He received a job
on...
To hear the rest of the story, please click here.
A note of encouragement from the Editor:
After my son turned sixteen, I told him it was time
to get a job. It was summer and jobs were hard
to find. The unemployment rate was about 6%
at the time. But the unemployment rate for
teenagers was 19.5%! The summer is the
hardest time of the year for a teenager to find
a job. The outlook for a first time summer job
was dismal.
On a Monday, I told my 16 year old to apply
for ten jobs every day until he got one.
He said he couldn't come up with even the first ten
places to apply.
He applied for ten jobs per day. He received a job
on...
To hear the rest of the story, please click here.
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