Market Commentary 9299
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Transportation Index is in the table at the
top of this page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Transportation
Average of 5396. The table shows a HDTFA of 901 which suggests that the
February, 2013 Dow Transportation Average could easily close anywhere
between 6298 and 4495. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes
may be found on the right side of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500 will
be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2022 close compared
to January, 2012 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the
S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the
next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 5515 (April, 2011)
January, 2012 close 5319
Decline From All Time High 4%
10 Year Return 90%
5 Year Low 2499 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 113%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJTA was 5515 in April, of 2011. The
January, 2012 close was 5319. That's a decline of 196 points or 4% below the
Dow Transports all time high. The Dow Transportation Index is up 90% over
the last 10 years. It has gained 6% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 299.45 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
5020, resulting in a 5.97% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Transportation Average was 2499 in
February of 2009. The January, 2012 close at 5319.14 represents a 113% gain
since February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Transportation
Average back to November, 1928. All calculations are based on the monthly
market close in the DJTA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Transports. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Transportation Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Transportation Average
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1928 - 2012: Dow Transportation Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 48th 262% / 8% / -84%
2 Year 37% / 70th 227% / 16% / -90%
4 Year 12% / 37th 256% / 33% / -85%
8 Year 84% / 56th 355% / 80% / -88%
16 Year 173% / 45th 984% / 248% / -72%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Dow Transportation Index
returned 37%. That period scored in the 70th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 70% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1928. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1928 returned 227%. The worst returned -90%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 16%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 988
2 Year: 976
4 Year: 952
8 Year: 904
16 Year: 808
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1962 - 2012: Dow Transportation Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 43rd 83% / 10% / -45%
2 Year 37% / 68th 103% / 20% / -54%
4 Year 12% / 30th 151% / 39% / -47%
8 Year 84% / 50th 355% / 96% / -40%
16 Year 173% / 30th 984% / 336% / 24%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 589
2 Year: 577
4 Year: 553
8 Year: 505
16 Year: 409
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Transportation Index is in the table at the
top of this page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Transportation
Average of 5396. The table shows a HDTFA of 901 which suggests that the
February, 2013 Dow Transportation Average could easily close anywhere
between 6298 and 4495. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes
may be found on the right side of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500 will
be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2022 close compared
to January, 2012 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the
S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the
next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 5515 (April, 2011)
January, 2012 close 5319
Decline From All Time High 4%
10 Year Return 90%
5 Year Low 2499 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 113%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJTA was 5515 in April, of 2011. The
January, 2012 close was 5319. That's a decline of 196 points or 4% below the
Dow Transports all time high. The Dow Transportation Index is up 90% over
the last 10 years. It has gained 6% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 299.45 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
5020, resulting in a 5.97% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Transportation Average was 2499 in
February of 2009. The January, 2012 close at 5319.14 represents a 113% gain
since February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Transportation
Average back to November, 1928. All calculations are based on the monthly
market close in the DJTA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Transports. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Transportation Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Transportation Average
categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1928 - 2012: Dow Transportation Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 48th 262% / 8% / -84%
2 Year 37% / 70th 227% / 16% / -90%
4 Year 12% / 37th 256% / 33% / -85%
8 Year 84% / 56th 355% / 80% / -88%
16 Year 173% / 45th 984% / 248% / -72%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Dow Transportation Index
returned 37%. That period scored in the 70th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 70% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1928. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1928 returned 227%. The worst returned -90%. The average
rolling 2 year period returned 16%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 988
2 Year: 976
4 Year: 952
8 Year: 904
16 Year: 808
Dividends are not included.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1962 - 2012: Dow Transportation Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year 6% / 43rd 83% / 10% / -45%
2 Year 37% / 68th 103% / 20% / -54%
4 Year 12% / 30th 151% / 39% / -47%
8 Year 84% / 50th 355% / 96% / -40%
16 Year 173% / 30th 984% / 336% / 24%
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Transportation Index are
as follows:
1 Year: 589
2 Year: 577
4 Year: 553
8 Year: 505
16 Year: 409
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
| __________________________________________ |
Monthly close for the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
| Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) - 5 Year History |
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| Dow Transportation Index Forecast |
| Dow Transportation Index (DJTA) Forecast Dow Jones Multi-Index Charts & Analysis |
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