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Market Commentary  26064
July, 2017 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Utility Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Utility Average of 685.
The table shows a HDTFA of 106 which suggests that the August, 2018 Dow
Utility Average could easily close anywhere between 791 and 580. Links to
Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.

BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average,  FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (July, 2027 close
compared to July, 2017 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The index with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years is the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with the lowest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap
600, S&P MidCap 400,  Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and the Dow Industrial
Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top
of any page, then select the index you are interested in.





Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          727 (May, 2017)
July, 2017 close                     726
Decline From All Time High     0%
10 Year Return                       52%
5 Year Low                             453 (December, 2012)
Gain From 5 Year Low            60%

The highest all time monthly close in the DJUA was 727 in May, of 2017. The
July, 2017 close was 726. That's a decline of 0 points or 0% below the Dow
Utilities all time high.  The Dow Utility Index is up 52% over the last 10 years. It
has gained 2% over the last 12 months.

The July close was 19.57 points higher than the June, 2017 close of 707,
resulting in a 2.77% rise in July.

The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Utility Average was 453 in December
of 2012. The July, 2017 close at 726.47998 represents a 60% gain since
December, 2012.

Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Utility Average back to
February, 1929. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
DJUA, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Utilities. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
Dow Utility Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Utility Average categorized by
the months of the calendar.





























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1929 - 2017: Dow Utility Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     2% / 42nd                    103% / 4% / -72%
2 Year                     24% / 75th                  119% / 9% / -83%
4 Year                     44% / 76th                  295% / 20% / -82%
8 Year                     97% / 83rd                  290% / 42% / -86%
16 Year                   108% / 57th               605% / 109% / -76%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (8/2015 - 7/2017), the Dow Utility Index returned
24%. That period scored in the 75th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 75% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1929. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1929 returned 119%. The worst returned -83%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 9%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Utility Index are as follows:
1 Year: 1051
2 Year: 1039
4 Year: 1015
8 Year: 967
16 Year: 871

Dividends are not included.



ROLLING RETURNS, 1967 - 2017: Dow Utility Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
1 Year                     2% / 41st                    46% / 5% / -41%
2 Year                     24% / 76th                  78% / 9% / -50%
4 Year                     44% / 79th                  142% / 19% / -45%
8 Year                     97% / 94th                  117% / 38% / -47%
16 Year                   108% / 60th               225% / 95% / -11%

The number of periods in each category for the Dow Utility Index are as follows:
1 Year: 595
2 Year: 583
4 Year: 559
8 Year: 511
16 Year: 415

Dividends are not included.










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Monthly close for the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) - 5 Year History
Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow
Jones Utility Average (DJUA) for the target
month indicated.
Aug 2018
685
106
Updated Friday, September 8, 2017.
Dow Utility Index Stock Market Forecast
Dow Utility Index (DJUA) Forecast
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Dow Jones Utilities: Historical Monthly Change
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Jan
Feb
Mar
-0.32
-1.35
0.77
April
May
June
2.91
0.20
-0.06
July
Aug
Sept
-0.28
0.95
0.22
Oct
Nov
Dec
0.48
-0.23
2.51
Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Dow Utility Index
1/14
1/2015
1/2016
1/2017
1/2018
1/2019
1/2020
1/21