Market Commentary  9315
January, 2012 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Mexico IPC Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Mexico IPC Stock Index of 45633.
The table shows a HDTFA of 8350 which suggests that the February, 2013
Mexico IPC could easily close anywhere between 53983 and 37282. Links to
Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on the right side of
this page.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average,  FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500 will
be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2022 close compared
to January, 2012 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the
S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the
next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.





Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          38551 (December, 2010)
January, 2012 close               37423
Decline From All Time High     3%
10 Year Return                       454%
5 Year Low                             17752 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low            111%

The highest all time monthly close in the IPC was 38551 in December, of 2010.
The January, 2012 close was 37423. That's a decline of 1128 points or 3%
below the Mexico IPC Index all time high.  The Mexico IPC Index is up 454% over
the last 10 years. It has gained 1% over the last 12 months.

The January close was 345.16 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
37078, resulting in a 0.93% rise in January.

The 5 year market low for the Mexico IPC Stock Index was 17752 in February of
2009. The January, 2012 close at 37422.68 represents a 111% gain since
February, 2009.

Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Mexico IPC back to
February, 1992. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
IPC, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Mexico IPC Index.
For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Mexico IPC Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Mexico IPC Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.

In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.



























Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1992 - 2012: Mexico IPC Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
   1 Year                     1% / 26th                    86% / 21% / -41%
   2 Year                     23% / 37th                  147% / 46% / -37%
   4 Year                     32% / 12th                  376% / 110% / 4%
   8 Year                     279% / 44th               611% / 313% / 116%
   16 Year                   1149% / 16th              2359% / 1423% / 898%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the Mexico IPC Index returned
23%. That period scored in the 37th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 37% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1992. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1992 returned 147%. The worst returned -37%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 46%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.)  50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the Mexico IPC Index are as follows:
1 Year: 229
2 Year: 217
4 Year: 193
8 Year: 145
16 Year: 49

Dividends are not included.



























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Monthly close for the Mexico IPC Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
Mexico IPC Stock Index - 5 Year History
Mexico IPC Stock Index Forecast
Target Month
Forecast
HDTFA
Forecast for the monthly close of the Mexico
IPC Stock Index for the target month indicated.
February 2013
45633
8350
Updated Thursday, February 2, 2012.
Mexico IPC Index Forecast
Mexico IPC Index Forecast
Dow Jones Multi-Index Charts & Analysis
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
Current Analysis & Forecast: Mexico IPC Stock Index
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Mexico IPC Index: Historical Monthly Change
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Month
Percent
Jan
Feb
Mar
 1.87
1.09
0.90
April
May
June
 3.54
0.87
0.79
July
Aug
Sept
 1.14
0.34
0.51
Oct
Nov
Dec
 0.76
2.91
5.53
Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
1/07         1/2008           1/2009           1/2010           1/2011            1/2012            1/2013            1/14