Market Commentary 9305
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the NYSE Composite Index is in the table at the top
of this page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a NYSE Composite Stock Index
of 7723. The table shows a HDTFA of 987 which suggests that the February,
2013 NYSE Composite could easily close anywhere between 8710 and 6736.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on the right
side of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500 will
be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2022 close compared
to January, 2012 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the
S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the
next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 10312 (October, 2007)
January, 2012 close 7838
Decline From All Time High 24%
10 Year Return 28%
5 Year Low 4617 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 70%
The highest all time monthly close in the NYSE Composite Index was 10312 in
October, of 2007. The January, 2012 close was 7838. That's a decline of 2473
points or 24% below the NYSE Composite Stock Index all time high. The NYSE
Composite Index is up 28% over the last 10 years. It has lost 4% over the last
12 months.
The January close was 361.45 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
7477, resulting in a 4.83% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the NYSE Composite Stock Index was 4617 in
February of 2009. The January, 2012 close at 7838.48 represents a 70% gain
since February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the NYSE Composite back to
January, 1966. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
NYSE Composite Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the NYSE Composite
Stock Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year
chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the NYSE Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts
can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The table above presents historical data on the NYSE Composite
Stock Index categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1965 - 2012: NYSE Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -4% / 22nd 55% / 8% / -48%
2 Year 14% / 46th 83% / 16% / -49%
4 Year -14% / 8th 137% / 33% / -37%
8 Year 20% / 21st 230% / 85% / -30%
16 Year 118% / 14th 819% / 298% / 32%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the NYSE Composite Index
returned 14%. That period scored in the 46th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 46% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1965. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1965 returned 83%. The worst returned -49%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 16%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the NYSE Composite Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 542
2 Year: 530
4 Year: 506
8 Year: 458
16 Year: 362
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
January, 2012 Data:
Part 1
FORECASTS
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the NYSE Composite Index is in the table at the top
of this page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a NYSE Composite Stock Index
of 7723. The table shows a HDTFA of 987 which suggests that the February,
2013 NYSE Composite could easily close anywhere between 8710 and 6736.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found on the right
side of this page.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500 will
be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2022 close compared
to January, 2012 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to
calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining
over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell 3000, the Russell 1000 and the
S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the
next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P MidCap 400. To see
these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link in the upper right corner of
any page, then select the index you are interested in.
Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
All Time High 10312 (October, 2007)
January, 2012 close 7838
Decline From All Time High 24%
10 Year Return 28%
5 Year Low 4617 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low 70%
The highest all time monthly close in the NYSE Composite Index was 10312 in
October, of 2007. The January, 2012 close was 7838. That's a decline of 2473
points or 24% below the NYSE Composite Stock Index all time high. The NYSE
Composite Index is up 28% over the last 10 years. It has lost 4% over the last
12 months.
The January close was 361.45 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
7477, resulting in a 4.83% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the NYSE Composite Stock Index was 4617 in
February of 2009. The January, 2012 close at 7838.48 represents a 70% gain
since February, 2009.
Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the NYSE Composite back to
January, 1966. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
NYSE Composite Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the NYSE Composite
Stock Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year
chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the NYSE Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts
can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The table above presents historical data on the NYSE Composite
Stock Index categorized by the months of the calendar.
In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.
Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1965 - 2012: NYSE Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -4% / 22nd 55% / 8% / -48%
2 Year 14% / 46th 83% / 16% / -49%
4 Year -14% / 8th 137% / 33% / -37%
8 Year 20% / 21st 230% / 85% / -30%
16 Year 118% / 14th 819% / 298% / 32%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the NYSE Composite Index
returned 14%. That period scored in the 46th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 46% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1965. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1965 returned 83%. The worst returned -49%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 16%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100
The number of periods in each category for the NYSE Composite Index are as
follows:
1 Year: 542
2 Year: 530
4 Year: 506
8 Year: 458
16 Year: 362
Dividends are not included.
_____________________________________________________________
Report a Problem with this Page Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use/Disclosure
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2012, All Rights Reserved
| __________________________________________ |
Monthly close for the NYSE Composite Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
| NYSE Composite Stock Index - 5 Year History |
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| NYSE Composite Index Forecast |
| 8500 |
| 10000 |
| 11500 |
| 7000 |
| 4000 |
| 5500 |
| NYSE Composite Index Forecast Dow Jones Multi-Index Charts & Analysis |
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