S&P 600 Index Forecast

Market Commentary 9319
January, 2012 Data:

Part 1
FORECASTS

12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 600 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600
Stock Index of 449. The table shows a HDTFA of 72 which suggests that the
February, 2013 S&P SmallCap 600 could easily close anywhere between 520
and 377. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found
on the right side of this page.

10 YEAR FORECAST
Foercast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
SmallCap 600 Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability
that the S&P 600 Index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in
time ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table
immediately below this paragraph. Foercast-Chart.com is forecasting a
probability of 4% that the S&P 600 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years
(January, 2022 close compared to January, 2012 close).

                              PROBABILITY
Down at least 20%          4%
Down at least 10%          6%
Down                               8%
Up                                   92%
Up at least 10%               83%
Up at least 20%               69%
Up at least 30%               56%
Up at least 40%               46%
Up at least 50%               37%
Up at least 100%             16%
Up at least 150%             2%
Up at least 200%               NS

NS - Not Significant

Over 100 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included so you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return. Each month, new data is
entered into the forecasting model and the S&P SmallCap 600 is assigned a
rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the worst is 1. That ranking
determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600
Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and
may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the S&P
SmallCap 600. The latest ranking of the S&P 600 Index is 3.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Russell 3000, the
Russell 1000 and the S&P 500. The indexes with the lowest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600 and the S&P
MidCap 400. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link in the
upper right corner of any page, then select the index you are interested in.

The last time that the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index received the
worst rank (1) was 10/2007, when the S&P 600 Index closed at 431. The last
time that the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index received a rank of 2
was 5/2008, when the S&P 600 Index closed at 395. Last month's close for the
Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index is in the Market Highlights section
below.

Part 2
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

All Time High                          458 (April, 2011)
January, 2012 close               442
Decline From All Time High     3%
10 Year Return                       94%
5 Year Low                             206 (February, 2009)
Gain From 5 Year Low            115%

The highest all time monthly close in the S&P 600 Index was 458 in April, of
2011. The January, 2012 close was 442. That's a decline of 16 points or 3%
below the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index all time high. The S&P
600 Index is up 94% over the last 10 years. It has gained 6% over the last 12
months.

The January close was 27.05 points higher than the December, 2011 close of
415, resulting in a 6.52% rise in January.

The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index was
206 in February of 2009. The January, 2012 close at 442.12 represents a
115% gain since February, 2009.

Foercast-Chart.com's historical research covers the S&P SmallCap 600 back to
September, 1995. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
S&P 600 Index, excluding dividends.

This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Standard & Poor's
SmallCap 600 Stock Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links
under the five year chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another
opens our longest term graph on the S&P 600 Index. Just one glance at our
long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the
financial markets.

In this site, you may view the month, year, five & ten year returns for 23 stock
market indexes in one convenient table. U.S. & foreign, small cap & large cap
indexes are included. Click the Market Trend Research link in the uppermost
left corner of any page in this site. The table of contents for Market Trend
Research will open. Click the link to the Stock Index Return Scoreboard in the
table of contents.

Part 3
ROLLING RETURNS, 1995 - 2012: S&P 600 Index

Rolling Period          Last / Percentile          Best / Average / Worst
   1 Year                     6% / 35th                    62% / 10% / -43%
   2 Year                     38% / 76th                  111% / 20% / -49%
   4 Year                     18% / 31st                  123% / 34% / -38%
   8 Year                     59% / 22nd                  156% / 93% / -7%
   16 Year                   268% / 100th              268% / 244% / 200%

How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2010 - 1/2012), the S&P 600 Index returned 38%.
That period scored in the 76th percentile, meaning that it scored better than
76% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1995. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1995 returned 111%. The worst returned -49%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 20%.

What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
December, 2001.

How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
100

The number of periods in each category for the S&P 600 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 186
2 Year: 174
4 Year: 150
8 Year: 102
16 Year: 6

Dividends are not included.

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390

470

550

Monthly close for the S&P SmallCap 600 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.

Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index - 5 Year History