Market Commentary 30637
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Dow Composite Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Dow Jones Composite Average
of 8464. The table shows a HDTFA of 1108 which suggests that the February,
2020 Dow Composite Index could easily close anywhere between 9572 and
7356. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by
clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2029
close compared to January, 2019 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data
was used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability
of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX
Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next
10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ
100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock
Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are
All Time High 8810 (September, 2018)
January, 2019 close 8252
Decline From All Time High 6%
10 Year Return 195%
5 Year Low 5627 (February, 2014)
Gain From 5 Year Low 47%
The highest all time monthly close in the DJCA was 8810 in September, of
2018. The January, 2019 close was 8252. That's a decline of 558 points or 6%
below the Dow Composite Average all time high. The Dow Composite Index is
up 195% over the last 10 years. It has lost 4% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 541.92 points higher than the December, 2018 close of
7710, resulting in a 7.03% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Dow Jones Composite Average was 5627 in
February of 2014. The January, 2019 close at 8252.36 represents a 47% gain
since February, 2014.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Dow Composite Index back
to January, 1981. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
DJCA, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Dow Composite
Average. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year
chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Dow Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Dow Jones Composite Average
categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1980 - 2019: Dow Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -4% / 17th 54% / 10% / -41%
2 Year 18% / 43rd 76% / 21% / -42%
4 Year 32% / 31st 130% / 44% / -29%
8 Year 102% / 54th 229% / 97% / -24%
16 Year 262% / 56th 809% / 281% / 85%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the Dow Composite Index
returned 18%. That period scored in the 43rd percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 43% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1980. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1980 returned 76%. The worst returned -42%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 21%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Dow Composite Index are as
1 Year: 446
2 Year: 434
4 Year: 410
8 Year: 362
16 Year: 266
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the Dow Jones Composite Average (DJCA) is plotted in gray. The forecast for the
target month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Dow Jones Composite Average (DJCA) - 5 Year History
|Dow Composite Index: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Dow Composite Index
|Dow Composite Stock Market Index Forecast (DJCA)|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Dow Jones Composite Average|
(DJCA) for the target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year