Market Commentary 30645
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Wilshire 5000 Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Wilshire 5000 Stock Index of
28710. The table shows a HDTFA of 3164 which suggests that the February,
2020 Wilshire 5000 could easily close anywhere between 31874 and 25546.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Wilshire 5000 Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the Wilshire 5000
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 3%
that the Wilshire 5000 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January,
2029 close compared to January, 2019 close).
Down at least 20% 3%
Down at least 10% 5%
Up at least 10% 81%
Up at least 20% 73%
Up at least 30% 64%
Up at least 40% 55%
Up at least 50% 51%
Up at least 100% 24%
Up at least 150% 13%
Up at least 200% 2%
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Wilshire 5000 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Wilshire
5000 Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly
and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
Wilshire 5000. The latest ranking of the Wilshire 5000 Index is 5.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and
the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these
forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then
select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index received the best rank (10) was
4/2009, when the Wilshire 5000 Index closed at 8963. The last time that the
Wilshire 5000 Stock Index received a rank of 9 was 11/2011, when the Wilshire
5000 Index closed at 12903. The last time that the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index
received the worst rank (1) was 10/2000, when the Wilshire 5000 Index closed
at 13253. The last time that the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index received a rank of 2
was 1/2001, when the Wilshire 5000 Index closed at 12691. Last month's close
for the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index is in the Market Highlights section below.
All Time High 30275 (August, 2018)
January, 2019 close 27992
Decline From All Time High 8%
10 Year Return 236%
5 Year Low 19737 (September, 2015)
Gain From 5 Year Low 42%
The highest all time monthly close in the Wilshire 5000 Index was 30275 in
August, of 2018. The January, 2019 close was 27992. That's a decline of 2282
points or 8% below the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index all time high. The Wilshire
5000 Index is up 236% over the last 10 years. It has lost 4% over the last 12
The January close was 2242.69 points higher than the December, 2018 close
of 25750, resulting in a 8.71% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index was 19737 in
September of 2015. The January, 2019 close at 27992.41 represents a 42%
gain since September, 2015.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Wilshire 5000 back to
November, 2000. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Wilshire 5000 Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Wilshire 5000 Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Wilshire 5000 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
ROLLING RETURNS, 2000 - 2019: Wilshire 5000 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -4% / 20th 53% / 7% / -44%
2 Year 17% / 45th 87% / 15% / -48%
4 Year 33% / 46th 114% / 32% / -37%
8 Year 107% / 78th 229% / 62% / -35%
16 Year 245% / 92nd 289% / 165% / 67%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the Wilshire 5000 Index returned
17%. That period scored in the 45th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 45% of all rolling 2 year periods since 2000. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 2000 returned 87%. The worst returned -48%. The average rolling 2 year
period returned 15%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Wilshire 5000 Index are as
1 Year: 208
2 Year: 196
4 Year: 172
8 Year: 124
16 Year: 28
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Wilshire 5000 Stock Index - 5 Year History
Wilshire 5000 Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: Wilshire 5000 Index
|Wilshire 5000 Index Stock Market Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Wilshire 5000 Stock Index for the|
target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.