Market Commentary 30638
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the NASDAQ 100 Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a NASDAQ 100 Stock Index of
7855. The table shows a HDTFA of 1192 which suggests that the February,
2020 NASDAQ 100 could easily close anywhere between 9048 and 6663. Links
to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the NASDAQ 100 Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the NASDAQ equity
index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten years in
the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately below this
paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 10% that the
NASDAQ 100 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January, 2029 close
compared to January, 2019 close).
Down at least 20% 10%
Down at least 10% 12%
Up at least 10% 73%
Up at least 20% 60%
Up at least 30% 49%
Up at least 40% 42%
Up at least 50% 31%
Up at least 100% 11%
Up at least 150% 1%
Up at least 200% NS
Not Significant is abbreviated as NS.
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the NASDAQ 100 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the NASDAQ 100
Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and
may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
NASDAQ 100. The latest ranking of the NASDAQ is 2. Forecast-Chart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX Index. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and
the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the NASDAQ 100 received the best rank (10) was 3/2009,
when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at 1237. The last time that the NASDAQ
100 received a rank of 9 was 8/2010, when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at
1767. The last time that the NASDAQ 100 received the worst rank (1) was
9/2018, when the NASDAQ 100 Index closed at 7628. The last time that the
NASDAQ 100 received a rank of 2 was 1/2019, when the NASDAQ 100 Index
closed at 6907. Last month's close for the NASDAQ 100 is in the Market
Highlights section below.
All Time High 7655 (August, 2018)
January, 2019 close 6907
Decline From All Time High 10%
10 Year Return 485%
5 Year Low 3582 (April, 2014)
Gain From 5 Year Low 93%
The highest all time monthly close in the NASDAQ was 7655 in August, of 2018.
The January, 2019 close was 6907. That's a decline of 748 points or 10%
below the NASDAQ 100 all time high. The NASDAQ 100 Index is up 485% over
the last 10 years. It has lost 1% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 576.88 points higher than the December, 2018 close of
6330, resulting in a 9.11% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index was 3582 in April of
2014. The January, 2019 close at 6906.84 represents a 93% gain since April,
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the NASDAQ 100 back to
March, 1971. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
NASDAQ, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the NASDAQ 100. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
NASDAQ 100 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets. The table
above presents historical data on the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index categorized by
the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1971 - 2019: NASDAQ 100 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -1% / 21st 122% / 14% / -67%
2 Year 35% / 60th 274% / 31% / -77%
4 Year 66% / 51st 621% / 72% / -67%
8 Year 203% / 73rd 1263% / 189% / -59%
16 Year 603% / 57th 3407% / 617% / -2%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the NASDAQ 100 Index returned
35%. That period scored in the 60th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 60% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1971. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1971 returned 274%. The worst returned -77%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 31%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the NASDAQ 100 Index are as
1 Year: 564
2 Year: 552
4 Year: 528
8 Year: 480
16 Year: 384
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|NASDAQ 100 Stock Index - 5 Year History
NASDAQ 100 Index Forecast
|NASDAQ 100: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: NASDAQ 100 Stock Index
|NASDAQ 100 Stock Market Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the NASDAQ 100 Stock Index for the|
target month indicated See commentary and 10 year forecast below.