Market Commentary 30643
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the Russell 2000 Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Russell 2000 Stock Index of
1538. The table shows a HDTFA of 251 which suggests that the February,
2020 Russell 2000 could easily close anywhere between 1789 and 1287. Links
to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking Stock
Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Russell 2000 Stock
Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the Russell 2000
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 4%
that the Russell 2000 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January,
2029 close compared to January, 2019 close).
Down at least 20% 4%
Down at least 10% 5%
Up at least 10% 89%
Up at least 20% 80%
Up at least 30% 70%
Up at least 40% 61%
Up at least 50% 51%
Up at least 100% 20%
Up at least 150% 4%
Up at least 200% NS
Not Significant is abbreviated as NS.
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the Russell 2000 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Russell 2000
Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated monthly and
may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements in the
Russell 2000. The latest ranking of the Russell 2000 Index is 4.
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market
indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and
the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these
forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then
select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Russell 2000 Stock Index received a rank of 9 was
3/2009, when the Russell 2000 Index closed at 423. The last time that the
Russell 2000 Stock Index received the worst rank (1) was 8/2000, when the
Russell 2000 Index closed at 538. The last time that the Russell 2000 Stock
Index received a rank of 2 was 5/2007, when the Russell 2000 Index closed at
847. Last month's close for the Russell 2000 Stock Index is in the Market
Highlights section below.
All Time High 1741 (August, 2018)
January, 2019 close 1499
Decline From All Time High 14%
10 Year Return 238%
5 Year Low 1034 (February, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 45%
The highest all time monthly close in the Russell 2000 Index was 1741 in
August, of 2018. The January, 2019 close was 1499. That's a decline of 241
points or 14% below the Russell 2000 Stock Index all time high. The Russell
2000 Index is up 238% over the last 10 years. It has lost 5% over the last 12
The January close was 150.86 points higher than the December, 2018 close of
1349, resulting in a 11.19% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Russell 2000 Stock Index was 1034 in February
of 2016. The January, 2019 close at 1499.42 represents a 45% gain since
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the Russell 2000 back to
October, 1987. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Russell 2000 Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Russell 2000 Stock
Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the Russell 2000 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Russell 2000 Stock Index
categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1987 - 2019: Russell 2000 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -5% / 18th 62% / 10% / -43%
2 Year 10% / 30th 112% / 20% / -51%
4 Year 29% / 31st 134% / 41% / -39%
8 Year 92% / 59th 256% / 91% / -18%
16 Year 303% / 79th 545% / 223% / 75%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the Russell 2000 Index returned
10%. That period scored in the 30th percentile, meaning that it scored better
than 30% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1987. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1987 returned 112%. The worst returned -51%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 20%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the Russell 2000 Index are as
1 Year: 365
2 Year: 353
4 Year: 329
8 Year: 281
16 Year: 185
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the Russell 2000 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month is
shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Russell 2000 Stock Index - 5 Year History
Russell 2000 Index Forecast
|Russell 2000 Index: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: Russell 2000 Index
|Russell 2000 Stock Market Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the Russell 2000 Stock Index for the|
target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.