Market Commentary 30646
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the TSX Composite Index is in the table at the top of
this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a TSX Composite Stock Index of
17201. The table shows a HDTFA of 2289 which suggests that the February,
2020 S&P TSX Index could easily close anywhere between 19491 and 14912.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the TSX Composite
Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the TSX
equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point in time ten
years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table immediately
below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a probability of 4%
that the TSX Composite Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years (January,
2029 close compared to January, 2019 close).
Down at least 20% 4%
Down at least 10% 5%
Up at least 10% 92%
Up at least 20% 91%
Up at least 30% 90%
Up at least 40% 89%
Up at least 50% 88%
Up at least 100% 72%
Up at least 150% 59%
Up at least 200% 42%
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P TSX Index is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and the
worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the TSX
Composite Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the S&P TSX Index. The latest ranking of the TSX is 7. Forecast-Chart.com
publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock market indexes covered at
Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX Index. The
indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years
are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and
the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock Market
Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are interested in.
The forecast for the TSX Composite Index is designed for Canadian Dollar
based investors . Returns for investors not based in the Canadian Dollar will be
affected by currency fluctuations.
The last time that the TSX Composite received the worst rank (1) was 9/2000,
when the TSX Composite Index closed at 10321. The last time that the TSX
Composite received a rank of 2 was 10/2007, when the TSX Composite Index
closed at 14625. Last month's close for the TSX Composite is in the Market
Highlights section below.
All Time High 16434 (July, 2018)
January, 2019 close 15541
Decline From All Time High 5%
10 Year Return 79%
5 Year Low 12822 (January, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 21%
The highest all time monthly close in the TSX was 16434 in July, of 2018. The
January, 2019 close was 15541. That's a decline of 893 points or 5% below the
TSX Composite all time high. The TSX Composite Index is up 79% over the last
10 years. It has lost 3% over the last 12 months.
The January close was 1217.74 points higher than the December, 2018 close
of 14323, resulting in a 8.50% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the TSX Composite Stock Index was 12822 in
January of 2016. The January, 2019 close at 15540.6 represents a 21% gain
since January, 2016.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the S&P TSX Index back to
January, 2000. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
TSX, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the TSX Composite. For
links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart (above).
One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term graph on the
TSX Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can provide
tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1999 - 2019: TSX Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -3% / 31st 43% / 4% / -40%
2 Year 1% / 36th 74% / 10% / -41%
4 Year 6% / 34th 113% / 22% / -24%
8 Year 15% / 21st 123% / 38% / -7%
16 Year 129% / 83rd 148% / 91% / 31%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the TSX Composite Index
returned 1%. That period scored in the 36th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 36% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1999. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1999 returned 74%. The worst returned -41%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 10%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the TSX Composite Index are as
1 Year: 218
2 Year: 206
4 Year: 182
8 Year: 134
16 Year: 38
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the S&P/TSX Composite Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|TSX Composite Stock Index - 5 Year History
TSX Composite Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: TSX Composite Index
|TSX Composite Index Stock Market Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the TSX Composite Stock Index for the|
target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.