Market Commentary 30641
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the NYSE Composite Index is in the table at the top
of this page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a NYSE Composite Stock Index
of 12614. The table shows a HDTFA of 1740 which suggests that the February,
2020 NYSE Composite could easily close anywhere between 14354 and 10875.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for the following stock
market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100 (United Kingdom),
Hang Seng (Hong Kong), S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
NASDAQ 100, TSX Composite (Canada), Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell
1000 and the Wilshire 5000. For example, the probability that the S&P 500
equity index will be down at least 20% in 10 years is estimated (January, 2029
close compared to January, 2019 close). Over 100 YEARS of historical data
was used to calculate the probabilities. The indexes with the highest probability
of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and the S&P TSX
Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over 200% in the next
10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ
100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these forecasts, click the Stock
Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then select the index you are
All Time High 13368 (January, 2018)
January, 2019 close 12299
Decline From All Time High 8%
10 Year Return 137%
5 Year Low 9560 (February, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 29%
The highest all time monthly close in the NYSE Composite Index was 13368 in
January, of 2018. The January, 2019 close was 12299. That's a decline of 1069
points or 8% below the NYSE Composite Stock Index all time high. The NYSE
Composite Index is up 137% over the last 10 years. It has lost 8% over the last
The January close was 924.60 points higher than the December, 2018 close of
11374, resulting in a 8.13% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the NYSE Composite Stock Index was 9560 in
February of 2016. The January, 2019 close at 12299.04 represents a 29% gain
since February, 2016.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the NYSE Composite back to
January, 1966. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
NYSE Composite Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the NYSE Composite
Stock Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year
chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the NYSE Composite Index. Just one glance at our long term charts
can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial
markets. The table above presents historical data on the NYSE Composite
Stock Index categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1965 - 2019: NYSE Composite Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -8% / 16th 55% / 8% / -48%
2 Year 10% / 38th 83% / 16% / -49%
4 Year 17% / 35th 137% / 33% / -37%
8 Year 51% / 41st 230% / 78% / -30%
16 Year 153% / 36th 819% / 259% / 32%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the NYSE Composite Index
returned 10%. That period scored in the 38th percentile, meaning that it scored
better than 38% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1965. The Best rolling 2 Year
period since 1965 returned 83%. The worst returned -49%. The average rolling
2 year period returned 16%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the NYSE Composite Index are as
1 Year: 626
2 Year: 614
4 Year: 590
8 Year: 542
16 Year: 446
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the NYSE Composite Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|NYSE Composite Stock Index - 5 Year History
NYSE Composite Index Forecast
|NYSE Composite: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
Stock Market Forecast: NYSE Stock Index
|NYSE Composite Stock Market Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of the NYSE Composite Stock Index for the |
target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year forecast below.