Market Commentary 30652
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 400 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 of
1920. The table shows a HDTFA of 282 which suggests that the February,
2020 S&P MidCap 400 could easily close anywhere between 2202 and 1637.
Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by clicking
Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
MidCap 400. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability that the S&P
MidCap 400 equity index will achieve certain gain or loss benchmarks at a point
in time ten years in the future. For example, look at the top line of the table
immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a
probability of 10% that the S&P 400 Index will be down at least 20% in 10 years
(January, 2029 close compared to January, 2019 close).
Down at least 20% 10%
Down at least 10% 12%
Up at least 10% 73%
Up at least 20% 60%
Up at least 30% 49%
Up at least 40% 42%
Up at least 50% 31%
Up at least 100% 11%
Up at least 150% 1%
Up at least 200% NS
Not Significant is abbreviated as NS.
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P MidCap 400 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and
the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard
& Poor's MidCap 400 . The data used in the forecasting model is updated
monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial movements
in the S&P MidCap 400. The latest ranking of the Standard & Poor's MidCap
400 Stock Index is 2. Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12
of the 23 stock market indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes
with the highest probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the
Hang Seng and the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of
gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P
MidCap 400, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To
see these forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page,
then select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Standard & Poor's 400 received the worst rank (1) was
9/2018, when the S&P 400 Index closed at 2020. The last time that the
Standard & Poor's 400 received a rank of 2 was 1/2019, when the S&P 400
Index closed at 1835. Last month's close for the Standard & Poor's 400 is in
the Market Highlights section below.
All Time High 2045 (August, 2018)
January, 2019 close 1835
Decline From All Time High 10%
10 Year Return 268%
5 Year Low 1318 (January, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 39%
The highest all time monthly close in the Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Stock
Index was 2045 in August, of 2018. The January, 2019 close was 1835. That's
a decline of 209 points or 10% below the Standard & Poor's 400 all time high.
The S&P 400 Index is up 268% over the last 10 years. It has lost 6% over the
last 12 months.
The January close was 172.35 points higher than the December, 2018 close of
1663, resulting in a 10.36% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 was 1318 in
January of 2016. The January, 2019 close at 1835.39 represents a 39% gain
since January, 2016.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the S&P MidCap 400 back to
September, 1991. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Stock Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Standard & Poor's
400. For links to longer term charts, look at the links under the five year chart
(above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another opens our longest term
graph on the S&P 400 Index. Just one glance at our long term charts can
provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the financial markets.
The table above presents historical data on the Standard & Poor's MidCap 400
categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1991 - 2019: S&P 400 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -6% / 10th 64% / 12% / -43%
2 Year 9% / 19th 115% / 24% / -46%
4 Year 28% / 24th 145% / 53% / -33%
8 Year 98% / 42nd 285% / 121% / -10%
16 Year 340% / 75th 592% / 316% / 186%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the S&P 400 Index returned 9%.
That period scored in the 19th percentile, meaning that it scored better than
19% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1991. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1991 returned 115%. The worst returned -46%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 24%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 400 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 318
2 Year: 306
4 Year: 282
8 Year: 234
16 Year: 138
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the S&P MidCap 400 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target month
is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Stock Index - 5 Year History
S&P 400 Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: S&P 400 Stock Index
|S&P 400 Index: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
|S&P 400 Stock Market Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 Stock|
Index for the target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year