Market Commentary 30655
January, 2019 Data:
12 MONTH FORECAST
The 12 month forecast for the S&P 600 Index is in the table at the top of this
page. Forecast-Chart.com is forecasting a Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600
Stock Index of 987. The table shows a HDTFA of 164 which suggests that the
February, 2020 S&P SmallCap 600 could easily close anywhere between 1151
and 822. Links to Forecasts for twenty-two other stock indexes may be found by
clicking Stock Market Forecast at the top of any page.
BULL MARKET or BEAR MARKET?
An updated primary trend forecast for the U.S. Stock Market is provided to
subscribers only. A time delayed primary trend forecast is provided to non
subscribers. Artificial Intelligence is used to forecast major turning points in the
broad U.S. Stock Market. The forecast is either a Bull Market Signal (up) or a
Bear Market Signal (down). This mathematical system performed very well in a
one hundred year backtest and also in real time since going live in 2005. To get
the forecast signal for the broad U.S Stock Market, click Stock Market Forecast
at the top of any page. Then select the Bull Market & Bear Market Forecast.
10 YEAR FORECAST
Forecast-Chart.com publishes a Ten Year Forecast for the Standard & Poor's
SmallCap 600 Stock Index. The Ten Year Forecast estimates the probability
that the S&P SmallCap 600 equity index will achieve certain gain or loss
benchmarks at a point in time ten years in the future. For example, look at the
top line of the table immediately below this paragraph. Forecast-Chart.com is
forecasting a probability of 19% that the S&P 600 Index will be down at least
20% in 10 years (January, 2029 close compared to January, 2019 close).
Down at least 20% 19%
Down at least 10% 23%
Up at least 10% 59%
Up at least 20% 44%
Up at least 30% 31%
Up at least 40% 23%
Up at least 50% 13%
Up at least 100% NS
Up at least 150% NS
Up at least 200% NS
Not Significant is abbreviated as NS.
Over 110 YEARS of historical data was used to calculate the probabilities in the
table above. Dividends are not included. So you must add expected dividends
to the forecasted gain to estimate the total return for the equities represented
by this index. Each month, new data is entered into the forecasting model and
the S&P SmallCap 600 is assigned a rank from 1 to 10. The best rank is 10 and
the worst is 1. That ranking determines the Ten Year Forecast for the Standard
& Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index . The data used in the forecasting model is
updated monthly and may change the forecast, particularly after substantial
movements in the S&P SmallCap 600. The latest ranking of the S&P 600 Index
is 1. Forecast-Chart.com publishes a 10 Year Forecast for 12 of the 23 stock
market indexes covered at Forecast-Chart.com. The indexes with the highest
probability of gaining over 200% in the next 10 years are the Hang Seng and
the S&P TSX Index. The indexes with the lowest probability of gaining over
200% in the next 10 years are the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400,
Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100 and the Dow Industrial Average. To see these
forecasts, click the Stock Market Forecast link at the top of any page, then
select the index you are interested in.
The last time that the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index received the
worst rank (1) was 1/2019, when the S&P 600 Index closed at 934. The last time
that the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index received a rank of 2 was
12/2018, when the S&P 600 Index closed at 845. Last month's close for the
Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index is in the Market Highlights section
All Time High 1098 (August, 2018)
January, 2019 close 934
Decline From All Time High 15%
10 Year Return 299%
5 Year Low 630 (January, 2016)
Gain From 5 Year Low 48%
The highest all time monthly close in the S&P 600 Index was 1098 in August, of
2018. The January, 2019 close was 934. That's a decline of 164 points or 15%
below the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index all time high. The S&P
600 Index is up 299% over the last 10 years. It has lost 3% over the last 12
The January close was 89.18 points higher than the December, 2018 close of
845, resulting in a 10.55% rise in January.
The 5 year market low for the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index was
630 in January of 2016. The January, 2019 close at 934.12 represents a 48%
gain since January, 2016.
Forecast-Chart.com's historical research covers the S&P SmallCap 600 back to
September, 1995. All calculations are based on the monthly market close in the
S&P 600 Index, excluding dividends.
This page provides a five year chart and a forecast for the Standard & Poor's
SmallCap 600 Stock Index. For links to longer term charts, look at the links
under the five year chart (above). One link opens a ten year chart. Another
opens our longest term graph on the S&P 600 Index. Just one glance at our
long term charts can provide tremendous insight into the historical trends of the
financial markets. The table above presents historical data on the Standard &
Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index categorized by the months of the calendar.
ROLLING RETURNS, 1995 - 2019: S&P 600 Index
Rolling Period Last / Percentile Best / Average / Worst
1 Year -3% / 18th 62% / 11% / -43%
2 Year 12% / 29th 111% / 23% / -49%
4 Year 39% / 39th 148% / 45% / -38%
8 Year 124% / 70th 311% / 102% / -7%
16 Year 392% / 96th 465% / 282% / 200%
How do you read the table?
For example: Rolling 2 year period returns are shown on the second row. In the
latest rolling 2 year period, (2/2017 - 1/2019), the S&P 600 Index returned 12%.
That period scored in the 29th percentile, meaning that it scored better than
29% of all rolling 2 year periods since 1995. The Best rolling 2 Year period
since 1995 returned 111%. The worst returned -49%. The average rolling 2
year period returned 23%.
What is a rolling period?
It's an overlapping period in a data base. For example: In the 2 year period
included in 2000 - 2001, there are 13 complete rolling 12 Month Periods. The
first is January, 2000 - December, 2000. The second is February, 2000 -
January, 2001. The third is March, 2000 - February, 2001 and so on. The last
complete rolling 12 Month Period in the 2000 - 2001 period is January, 2001 -
How is this information useful?
Best and worst case scenarios may be estimated based on historical facts.
Also, the relationship of the periods is sometimes very helpful. Suppose that the
worst rolling 8 year period in the last 50 years returned -30%. Suppose also
that the latest 4 year period has returned -50%. Market psychology at this point
may be one of great fear or possibly even panic. If the market stays flat for 4
more years, it will break the 8 year decline record by a whopping 20%! (-50%
minus -30% equals -20%.) 50 plus year records are not often broken. That
provides reason to hope that the market will recover that 20% over the next 4
years. If it does, then the 8 year loss will be 30%. The longest index histories
are found in the DJIA, FTSE 100 with FT 30, DJTA, DJUA, S&P 500, & NASDAQ
The number of periods in each category for the S&P 600 Index are as follows:
1 Year: 270
2 Year: 258
4 Year: 234
8 Year: 186
16 Year: 90
Dividends are not included.
Updated Friday, February 8, 2019.
SignalTrend Inc. 2008 - 2019; All rights reserved.
Monthly close for the S&P SmallCap 600 Stock Index is plotted in gray. The forecast for the target
month is shown in green. See other links related to this stock index below.
|Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock Index - 5 Year History
S&P 600 Index Forecast
Stock Market Forecast: S&P 600 Stock Index
|S&P 600: Historical Monthly Change|
|Over the last 20 years, certain months have typically performed better than others. The |
average monthly return for each calender month over the last 20 years is shown above.
Dividends are not included.
|S&P 600 Stock Market Index Forecast|
|Forecast for the monthly close of Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Stock|
Index for the target month indicated. See commentary and 10 year